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LMT trades against a final fair-value range of $506.70-$782.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $507, high $783, with mid-point at $644.
Stock analysis

LMT fair value $507–$783

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-10अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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मूल्य
$506.51
▲ +137.92 (+27.23%)
उचित मूल्य
$644
$507–$783
रेटिंग
मज़बूत ख़रीद
confidence 88/100
ऊपरी अंतर
+27.2%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$547.77
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$116.8B
P/E fwd 15.8
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $644 with high case $783.
  • Implied upside of 27.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$644
Margin of safety
+21.4%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$506.51Price
Low $506.7
Mid $644.43
High $782.83

LMT trades against a final fair-value range of $506.70-$782.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs for defense
    High switching costs for defense platforms
  • Intangible assets via classified clearances
    Intangible assets via classified clearances and patents
  • Cycle upside
    Elevated geopolitical tensions driving global defense modernization and procurement.

§2 बेयर केस

A sustained freeze or reduction in the U.S. defense budget combined with severe supply chain inflation, compressing operating margins below 9% and halting top-line growth.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Defense Budget Cuts

· Medium

Significant reduction in U.S. DoD spending prioritizing legacy system phase-outs over new procurement.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
1-3 Years

Fixed-Price Cost Overruns

· High

Chronic inflation and supply chain bottlenecks drive severe losses on legacy fixed-price contracts.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
6-12 Months

Geopolitical De-escalation

· Low

Unexpected rapid resolution of major global conflicts reducing international demand for tactical systems.

FV impact
-10%
Trigger
3-5 Years
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Operating margins persistently falling below 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant delays in F-35 deliveries or block upgradesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Negative free cash flow generation in consecutive quartersMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Book-to-bill ratio dropping below 1.0xMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unplanned debt issuance to fund dividend payoutsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड

लाइन आइटम2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व$65.98B$67.57B+2.4%$71.04B+5.1%$75.05B+5.6%+4.4%
सकल लाभ$8.29B$8.48B$6.93B$7.62B-2.8%
परिचालन आय$8.35B$8.51B$7.01B$7.73B-2.5%
शुद्ध आय$5.73B$6.92B+20.8%$5.34B-22.8%$5.02B-6.0%-4.3%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$21.66$27.55$22.31$21.49-0.3%
EBITDA$8.71B$10.44B$8.82B$8.73B+0.1%
R&D—————
SG&A—————

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

Piotroski F-स्कोर
6 / 9
0–9 गुणवत्ता समग्र
Altman Z-स्कोर
3.33
दिवालियापन जोखिम (>3 सुरक्षित)
OCF / शुद्ध आय
1.71×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Pass
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
19.6%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

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FAQ

LMT — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, LMT looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $507 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $644 (range $507–$783), which implies roughly 27.2% upside to the midpoint.

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