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MPWR trades against a final fair-value range of $445.50-$897.61, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $446, high $898, with mid-point at $670.
Stock analysis

MPWR fair value $446–$898

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-10अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Growth infrastructure
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मूल्य
$1600.84
▼ -930.38 (-58.12%)
उचित मूल्य
$670
$446–$898
रेटिंग
बेचें
confidence 48/100
ऊपरी अंतर
-58.1%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$569.89
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$78.6B
P/E fwd 53.1
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $670 with high case $898.
  • Implied downside of 58.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 48/100 · Growth infrastructure.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$670
Margin of safety
-138.8%
Confidence
48/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$1,600.84Price
Low $445.5
Mid $670.46
High $897.61

MPWR trades against a final fair-value range of $445.50-$897.61, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Process IP in high-density power
    Process IP in high-density power management
  • Deep integration into next-gen AI
    Deep integration into next-gen AI server racks
  • Cycle upside
    Hyper-growth phase fueled by generation-defining AI infrastructure build-outs and electrification.

§2 बेयर केस

A cyclical downturn coinciding with multiple compression breaks momentum. If long-term revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. fades to 3% without extreme margin expansion, intrinsic valueIntrinsic valueThe discounted present value of all cash a business will produce over its remaining life. The theoretical anchor for fair value, computed in practice as a range across explicit assumptions. violently resets toward our $422 cross-check floor.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

AI Capex Plateau

· High

Hyperscaler data center spending normalizes, sharply curtailing demand for high-end power management ICs.

FV impact
Downside to $445 floor

Margin Mean Reversion

· Medium

Intensified competition from legacy analog peers compresses operating margins below historical 32% bounds.

FV impact
Significant multiple contraction

Valuation Reality Check

· High

Macro conditions trigger a strict repricing of hyper-growth multiples, collapsing the forward P/E back to a 25x terminal assumption.

FV impact
Convergence to $670 base fair value
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Book-to-bill ratio falling below 1.0MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue exceeding 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Hyperscaler capex growth turning negativeMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins retreating below 30%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Slowing EV penetration rates reducing automotive semiconductor TAMMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
अवधि2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व$1.21B$1.79B$1.82B$2.21B$2.79B+23.3%
सकल लाभ$685.5M$1.05B$1.02B$1.22B$1.54B+22.4%
परिचालन आय$262.4M$526.8M$481.7M$539.4M$728.6M+29.1%
शुद्ध आय$242.0M$437.7M$427.4M$1.59B$621.5M+26.6%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$5.05$9.05$8.76$36.59$12.86+26.3%
EBITDA$291.1M$563.9M$521.9M$575.8M$781.1M+28.0%
R&D$190.6M$240.2M$263.6M$324.7M$382.3M+19.0%
SG&A$232.4M$281.6M$275.7M$356.8M$428.8M+16.5%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

OCF / शुद्ध आय
1.35×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Fail
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
16.2%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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SCENARIOS FAQ

MPWR scenarios questions

  1. Each scenario for MPWR (MPWR) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.

FAQ

MPWR — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MPWR looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $1601 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $670 (range $446–$898), which implies roughly 58.1% downside to the midpoint.

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