Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
NYSE: MRK · Real-Time Price · USD
$111
-0.92 (-0.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: MRK rated Hold
Hold. Valuation balances near-term strength against back-half transition risks.
Fair value (mid)
$121 / share
$94.9 – $147
Upside to FV
+7.4%
from $111
Confidence
84/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Successful clinical outcomes for late-stage ADC candidates and continued label expansions for current assets fully offset the 2028 Keytruda loss of exclusivity. This drives steady single-digit revenue growth and supports continued dividend expansion.
Biggest risk
Severe Keytruda Cliff
Severe Keytruda Cliff: Failure to offset Keytruda LOE through M&A or internal ADC pipeline leaves a massive revenue gap, severely compressing structural margins.
Recommended action
Hold
Hold. Current price of $112.30 represents limited upside of 7.4% to our $120.61 fair value mid-point, appropriately pricing in the pipeline transition risks.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $277.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 65.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 8.9B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $3.58 | |
| Shares out | 2.5B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 31.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 11.8x | |
| Dividend | $3.40 (3.05%) | |
| Volume | 5,725,057 | |
| Beta | 0.20 | |
| Price target | $125 | +12.5% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Merck & Co., Inc.MRK
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 65.8B
- Net income (ttm)
- 8.9B
- EPS (ttm)
- $3.58
- P/E (trailing)
- 31.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 11.8x
- Market cap
- $277.4B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $59.28B | $60.12B | $64.17B | $65.01B | +3.1% |
| Gross profit | $41.87B | $43.99B | $48.98B | $48.63B | +5.1% |
| Operating income | $18.28B | $2.95B | $20.22B | $22.11B | +6.5% |
| Net income | $14.52B | $365.0M | $17.12B | $18.25B | +7.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.71 | $0.14 | $6.74 | $7.28 | +8.4% |
| EBITDA | $21.32B | $6.91B | $25.71B | $28.26B | +9.9% |
| R&D | $13.55B | $30.53B | $17.94B | $15.79B | +5.2% |
| SG&A | $10.04B | $10.50B | $10.82B | $10.73B | +2.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $94.9
- Fair value (mid)
- $121
- Fair value (high)
- $147
- Current price
- $111
- Upside to mid
- +7.4%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $123 | 60% |
| Ddm | $86.41 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $225 | 10% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $93.16 | 15% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $38.00 | 5% |
| Discounted earnings | $287 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $279 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$125
+12.5%
In the news
Latest news · MRK
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $277.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 31.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 11.8x
- P/S
- 4.2x
- P/B
- 6.0x
- PEG
- 2.33
- EV / EBITDA
- 10.8x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 76.7%
- Operating margin
- 37.3%
- ROE
- 18.9%
- ROA
- 12.6%
- ROIC
- 21.2%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.07
- Current ratio
- 1.30
- Quick ratio
- 0.70
Trading
- Beta
- 0.20
- Volume
- 5,725,057
- Dividend yield
- 3.1%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +7.4% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$146.75
+30.7% from spot
Successful clinical outcomes for late-stage ADC candidates and continued label expansions for current assets fully offset the 2028 Keytruda loss of exclusivity. This drives steady single-digit revenue growth and supports continued dividend expansion.
- Successful ADC commercialization offsets Keytruda LOE
- Terminal PE multiple expands on robust growth
- M&A execution drives synergistic revenue streams
Base60%
Price target
$120.61
+7.4% from spot
Near-term operational momentum remains strong, but long-term cash flows are penalized to account for the impending revenue concentration cliff. A balanced approach weighting near-term execution against the inevitable 2028 strategic transition.
- Forward earnings model serves as primary anchor
- Terminal growth at 2.5%
- Terminal multiple of 15x bakes in pipeline risk
Bear20%
Price target
$94.87
-15.5% from spot
Pipeline failures, aggressive pricing competition post-Keytruda exclusivity, and IRA regulatory pressures compress margins and stall revenue growth, significantly endangering the long-term dividend growth rate and compressing terminal multiples.
- Pipeline failures stall revenue growth
- Aggressive pricing competition post-exclusivity compresses margins
- IRA regulatory pressures limit pricing power
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $121.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 60% | $123 | +10.2% | |
| Ddm | 10% | $86.4 | -22.4% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $225 | +101.7% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 15% | $93.2 | -16.4% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $38.0 | -65.9% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $287 | +157.4% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $279 | +150.8% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $121 | +7.4% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | $152 | $177 | $206 | $206 | $206 |
| 6.0% | $118 | $133 | $152 | $177 | $206 |
| 7.0% | $96.3 | $106 | $118 | $133 | $152 |
| 8.0% | $81.4 | $88.2 | $96.3 | $106 | $118 |
| 9.0% | $70.5 | $75.6 | $81.4 | $88.2 | $96.3 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management5.9
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth4.5
Risk Assessment7.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality4.5
Capital Efficiency6.0
Weighted composite
5.9/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 84/100
Target weight
Hold. Consider as a mature dividend-payer core holding with high dependence on pipeline replacement.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$111
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim if the stock consistently exceeds the $146.75 bull target without accompanying pipeline upgrades.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E11.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE18.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC21.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
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Market & fundamental data
Available fields
279
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 279 of 279 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on MRK
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this MRK report
What is the current MRK stock rating?
Merck & Co., Inc. is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full MRK analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/MRK/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for MRK?
The latest report frames MRK around $95 to $147. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the MRK page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldMRK · Fair value $121+7.4% · Confidence 84/100