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NET trades against a final fair-value range of $52.77-$105.88, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $52.8, high $106, with mid-point at $76.8.
Stock analysis

NET fair value $53–$106

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-09अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
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मूल्य
$196.13
▼ -119.29 (-60.82%)
उचित मूल्य
$77
$53–$106
रेटिंग
बेचें
confidence 48/100
ऊपरी अंतर
-60.8%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$65.31
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$69.3B
P/E fwd 136.0
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $77 with high case $106.
  • Implied downside of 60.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 48/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$77
Margin of safety
-155.2%
Confidence
48/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$196.13Price
Low $52.77
Mid $76.84
High $105.88

NET trades against a final fair-value range of $52.77-$105.88, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Global edge network scale and
    Global edge network scale and structural efficiency
  • High switching costs for integrated
    High switching costs for integrated SASE and Zero Trust platforms
  • Bull thesis
    Quantitative: Extreme overvaluation clearly indicated by strict EV/Rev constraints and PEG models.

§2 बेयर केस

In a sustained high-rate or risk-off environment, Cloudflare's deeply negative GAAP earnings and extreme reliance on top-line multiples make it uniquely vulnerable to duration-driven multiple compression, effectively stripping away its current scarcity premium.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Hyperscaler Edge Consolidation

· Medium

Major hyperscalers bundle edge compute and network security, destroying pricing power and permanently capping structural operating margins below 20%.

FV impact
Severe. Compresses fair value toward the $52 low-end.

AI Capex Black Hole

Low-Medium· Low

Heavy infrastructure investments in Workers AI fail to achieve required return hurdles, leading to perpetual free cash flow burn and dilutive equity raises.

FV impact
Moderate to Severe. Drives sustained multiple contraction.

SBC Re-rating and Multiple Compression

· High

The market loses patience with structurally high stock-based compensation (~20% of revenue), rerating the terminal multiple to 4x EV/Rev from our 8x anchor.

FV impact
Catastrophic. Triggers massive technical breakdown from current $196 price.
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
SBC expense stubbornly remains above 20% of total revenue.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Top-line revenue growth decelerates sharply below 25% near-term.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression drops below the 70% structural baseline.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capex-to-depreciation ratio climbs without proportional revenue acceleration.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net revenue retention dips below 110% as enterprise customers optimize IT spend.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड

लाइन आइटम2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व$975.2M$1.30B+33.3%$1.67B+28.5%$2.17B+29.9%+30.5%
सकल लाभ$742.6M$989.7M$1.29B$1.62B+29.6%
परिचालन आय$-201.2M$-185.5M$-154.8M$-207.2M
शुद्ध आय$-193.4M$-183.9M$-78.8M$-102.3M
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$-0.59$-0.55$-0.23$-0.29
EBITDA$-83.4M$-36.2M$62.0M$105.8M
R&D$298.3M$358.1M$421.4M$512.5M+19.8%
SG&A$645.5M$817.1M$1.02B$1.31B+26.6%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

OCF / शुद्ध आय
-5.9
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Fail
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
-0.0%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

हर कवर किए गए टिकर के लिए पूर्ण रिपोर्ट
रेटिंग संग्रह के 24 महीने
वॉचलिस्ट ब्रीफ़िंग और रेटिंग-परिवर्तन अलर्ट
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मुफ़्त ट्रायल शुरू करें
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CASH FLOW FAQ

NET cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for NET (NET) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.
FAQ

NET — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NET looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $196 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $76.8 (range $52.8–$106), which implies roughly 60.8% downside to the midpoint.
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