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NXPI trades against a final fair-value range of $151.79-$348.82, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $152, high $349, with mid-point at $249.
Stock analysis

NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. fair value $249–$349

NXPI
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-10अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature dividendNASDAQ · Information Technology
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मूल्य
$294.75
▼ -45.35 (-15.39%)
उचित मूल्य
$249
$249–$349
रेटिंग
घटाएँ
confidence 88/100
ऊपरी अंतर
-15.4%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$211.99
buy below · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$74.4B
P/E fwd 16.7
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $249 with high case $349.
  • Implied downside of 15.4% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$249
Margin of safety
-18.2%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$294.75Price
FV $249.4
High $348.82

NXPI trades against a final fair-value range of $151.79-$348.82, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs in automotive
    High switching costs in automotive supply chains.
  • Scale in microcontroller manufacturing
    Scale in microcontroller manufacturing.
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerated EV penetration and smart-factory rollouts drive outsized unit volume and pricing power.

§2 बेयर केस

In a severe auto recession combined with an EV adoption plateau, NXP's topline contracts materially as OEMs cancel orders. High fixed costs compress operating margins to the mid-teens, driving fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. down toward our $151.79 floor.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Prolonged Automotive Downcycle

· Medium

Global auto sales stagnate, pushing OEMs to slash semiconductor orders and violently bleed excess channel inventory.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
12-24 Months

Microcontroller Commoditization

· Low

Aggressive pricing from competitors in the legacy MCU space rapidly erodes gross margins below the 50% threshold.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
24-36 Months

EV Content Stagnation

· Medium

Electric vehicle adoption slows materially, permanently capping the expected secular growth in silicon content per vehicle.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
36+ Months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Days of inventory outstanding climbing above 120 days.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Successive downward revenue revisions from major Tier-1 auto suppliers.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression below 55% for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major automotive OEMs announcing transitions to proprietary silicon.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant deceleration in the Industrial & IoT segment growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
अवधि2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व$13.21B$13.28B$12.61B$12.27B-2.4%
सकल लाभ$7.52B$7.55B$7.12B$6.72B-3.7%
परिचालन आय$3.79B$3.68B$3.47B$3.04B-7.2%
शुद्ध आय$2.79B$2.80B$2.51B$2.02B-10.2%
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$10.55$10.70$9.73$7.95-9.0%
EBITDA$5.04B$4.90B$4.42B$3.96B-7.7%
R&D$2.15B$2.42B$2.35B$2.36B+3.2%
SG&A$1.07B$1.16B$1.16B$1.20B+4.1%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

OCF / शुद्ध आय
1.4×
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Fail
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
11.1%
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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रेटिंग संग्रह के 24 महीने
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FAQ

NXPI — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NXPI looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $295 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $249 (range $152–$349), which implies roughly 15.4% downside to the midpoint.

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