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SOFI trades against a final fair-value range of $3.54-$18.07, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $3.54, high $18.1, with mid-point at $10.0.
Stock analysis

SOFI fair value $4–$18

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
विश्लेषित: 2026-05-19अगला अद्यतन: 2026-08-19Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Financial
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मूल्य
$15.23
▼ -5.21 (-34.21%)
उचित मूल्य
$10
$4–$18
रेटिंग
बेचें
confidence 81/100
ऊपरी अंतर
-34.2%
upside to fair value
सुरक्षा मार्जिन
$8.52
MoS level · 15%
बाज़ार पूंजीकरण
$19.5B
P/E fwd 19.5
अंग्रेज़ी फ़ॉलबैकHI
अनुवाद होने तक अंग्रेज़ी स्रोत दिखा रहा है
इस रिपोर्ट का अभी अनुवाद नहीं हुआ है। अनुवाद कतार पकड़ने पर कुछ मिनट में रिफ़्रेश करें।

§1 कार्यकारी सारांश

  • Composite fair value $10 with high case $18.
  • Implied downside of 34.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 81/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$10
Margin of safety
-52.0%
Confidence
81/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$15.23Price
Low $3.54
Mid $10.02
High $18.07

SOFI trades against a final fair-value range of $3.54-$18.07, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Bank Charter Cost of Capital
    Bank Charter Cost of Capital Advantage
  • Tech Platform Premium Multiple via
    Tech Platform Premium Multiple via Galileo/Technisys
  • Bull thesis
    The market currently prices SoFi entirely on its Forward Earnings potential ($15.22), implicitly ignoring the stark reality of the Residual Income model ($2.21).

§2 बेयर केस

A severe macroeconomic recession triggers widespread unsecured personal loan defaults. SoFi's balance sheet contracts, NIM compresses, and the 'AWS of Fintech' transition aborts as B2B partners slash IT spend, confining the firm to a low-multiple consumer finance valuation.

इस थीसिस के टूटने के तरीक़े

Unsecured Credit Contraction

· High

Credit quality in the personal loan portfolio deteriorates significantly, driving charge-offs beyond historical averages and wiping out GAAP profitability.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
12-18 Months

Tech Growth Stagnation

· Medium

Technology platform segment revenue growth decelerates below 20% YoY, invalidating the 15x-20x terminal multiple required for the current market valuation.

FV impact
High
Trigger
24 Months

Persistent Value Destruction

· High

Sustained ROE fails to expand past 12.5%, structurally destroying economic value against the 12.41% Cost of Equity, triggering a severe multiple contraction.

FV impact
High
Trigger
6-12 Months
निगरानी हेतु शीघ्र चेतावनी संकेत
मेट्रिकवर्तमानट्रिगर सीमा
Deposit growth flattening.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Cost of deposits rising faster than loan yield expansion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Technology platform segment revenue growth decelerating below 20% YoY.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained ROE remaining below the 12.41% Cost of Equity.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Net charge-offs in the personal loan portfolio exceeding historical averages.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 वित्तीय इतिहास

आय विवरण — पिछले छह कालखंड
लाइन आइटमT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
अवधि2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
राजस्व$1.57B$2.11B$2.61B$3.61B+31.9%
सकल लाभ—————
परिचालन आय—————
शुद्ध आय$-320.4M$-300.7M$498.7M$481.3M—
EPS (डाइल्यूटेड)$-0.40$-0.36$0.39$0.39—
EBITDA—————
R&D—————
SG&A$1.12B$1.23B$1.40B$1.80B+17.2%

गुणवत्ता स्कोर

OCF / शुद्ध आय
-7.78
>1 उच्च आय गुणवत्ता दर्शाता है
लेखा गुणवत्ता गेट
Fail
सेक्टर-समायोजित गेट
ROIC
—
निवेशित पूँजी पर प्रतिफल
खंड 3

Numbers analysis

नकद प्रवाह

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

पूँजी आवंटन

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

व्यक्तिगत सब्सक्राइबर — §4 आगे11 और खंड

पूरा विश्लेषण पढ़ें — 11 और खंड.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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CASH FLOW FAQ

SOFI cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for SOFI (SOFI) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

FAQ

SOFI — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, SOFI looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $15.2 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $10.0 (range $3.54–$18.1), which implies roughly 34.2% downside to the midpoint.

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