Turnaround
Businesses whose results have deteriorated and whose price reflects pessimism — asymmetric, and cheap for a reason.
Wide model dispersion is the rule. We size positions to the bear case, demand a 30%+ MoS, and weight management track record heavily.
A turnaround is a business whose results have deteriorated and whose price reflects pessimism. The whole question is whether the deterioration is cyclical, self-inflicted and fixable, or structural and terminal — and the honest answer is often a probability, not a verdict.
These are asymmetric situations: cheap for a reason, with a wide distribution of outcomes. We deliberately weight the bear case first and look for tangible evidence that the inflection is underway — stabilizing metrics, not management optimism — before crediting a recovery in the valuation.
The questions that move the call for a turnaround — applied consistently across every name in the archetype.
Evidence of inflection
Are the operating metrics actually stabilizing, or is the recovery still entirely a narrative about next year?
Runway to execute
Does the balance sheet give management the time and capital to fix the business before the clock runs out?
What's priced out
A depressed price can embed a near-zero outcome; we quantify the optionality the market has stopped paying for.
Implicit assumptions
We reverse-engineer what the current price assumes about the recovery, then judge whether that bar is low or demanding.
Example reports
How the archetype lens reads in practice — free to open in full.