Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
ESTC trades against a final fair-value range of $79.75-$165.72, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $79.8, high $166, with mid-point at $118.
Stock analysis

ESTC fair value $80–$166

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizzato: 2026-05-10Prossimo aggiornamento: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
View archive
Prezzo
$52.25
▲ +65.96 (+126.24%)
Valore equo
$118
$80–$166
Valutazione
Acquisto forte
confidence 73/100
Potenziale rialzo
+126.2%
upside to fair value
Margine di Sicurezza
$100.48
MoS level · 15%
Capitalizzazione
$5.4B
P/E fwd 18.4
Fallback in ingleseIT
Mostrando la fonte in inglese mentre traduciamo
Questo report non è ancora stato tradotto. Aggiorna tra qualche minuto una volta che la coda di traduzione avrà recuperato.

§1 Sintesi

  • Composite fair value $118 with high case $166.
  • Implied upside of 126.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 73/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$118
Margin of safety
+55.8%
Confidence
73/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$52.25Price
Low $79.75
Mid $118.21
High $165.72

ESTC trades against a final fair-value range of $79.75-$165.72, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs in core
    High switching costs in core enterprise search and observability.
  • Growing footprint in generative AI
    Growing footprint in generative AI vector search.
  • Cycle upside
    Generative AI drives massive vector database adoption. Cloud migration and IT consolidation favor platforms offering unified observability and security.

§2 Scenario ribassista

A severe IT spending contraction paired with aggressive discounting by native cloud providers tests Elastic's pricing power. If top-line growth decelerates below 10% before operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. kicks in, the current 8x EV/RevenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. multiple will violently compress.

Come questa tesi può fallire

Cloud Provider Commoditization

· Low

Native cloud providers bundle vector search and observability natively at zero marginal cost, destroying top-line growth.

FV impact
Severe

Datadog Consolidation

· Medium

Enterprise IT consolidates entirely on Datadog or Splunk for observability, crowding out Elastic's premium offerings.

FV impact
Moderate

Perpetual Unprofitability

· High

SBC and R&D spend required to compete remain elevated indefinitely, preventing transition to structural profitability.

FV impact
High
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
MetricaAttualeSoglia di attivazione
Revenue growth decelerating below 15% YoY.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compressing below 70%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue expanding.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major enterprise logo churn to Datadog or native cloud tools.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Vector search adoption stalling in favor of standalone DBs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Storia finanziaria

Conto economico — ultimi sei periodi
VoceT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Periodo2022-04-302023-04-302024-04-302025-04-30Trend
Ricavi$862.4M$1.07B$1.27B$1.48B+19.8%
Utile lordo$630.2M$772.4M$937.2M$1.10B+20.5%
Reddito operativo$-173.7M$-187.9M$-125.0M$-54.7M—
Utile netto$-203.8M$-236.2M$61.7M$-108.1M—
EPS (diluito)$-2.20$-2.47$0.59$-1.04—
EBITDA$-157.3M$-171.5M$-78.6M$6.1M—
R&S$273.8M$313.5M$342.0M$365.8M+10.1%
SG&A$530.1M$646.8M$720.3M$792.4M+14.3%

Punteggi di qualità

Piotroski F-score
6 / 9
Composito qualità 0–9
Altman Z-score
2.35
Rischio di fallimento (>3 sicuro)
Beneish M-score
-3.02
Rischio di manipolazione degli utili
OCF / Utile netto
-2.46
>1 indica alta qualità degli utili
Soglia di qualità contabile
Fail
Soglia corretta per settore
ROIC
-0.0%
Rendimento del capitale investito
Sezione 3

Numbers analysis

Flusso di cassa

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocazione del capitale

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abbonati individuali — da §4 in poi11 sezioni in più

Leggi l'analisi completa — 11 sezioni in più.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Report completo per ogni ticker coperto
24 mesi di archivio rating
Briefing della watchlist + avvisi di variazione del rating
Esportazione PDF + DOCX in qualsiasi lingua
Inizia la prova gratuita
Annulla in qualsiasi momento.
REVENUE FAQ

ESTC revenue questions

  1. ESTC (ESTC)'s revenue growth is reported year-over-year across the most recent five fiscal years, with the deceleration or acceleration curve called out in the numbers-analysis subsection of the parent financials tab.

FAQ

ESTC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ESTC looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $52.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $118 (range $79.8–$166), which implies roughly 126.2% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of ESTC also follow

Same archetype: pre-profit