General Dynamics Corporation (GD)
NYSE: GD · Real-Time Price · USD
$347
-1.22 (-0.3%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: GD rated Hold
GD is rated Hold at $346.46 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $353.62, implying +2.07% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$354 / share
$249 – $459
Upside to FV
+2.1%
from $347
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Accelerated Gulfstream deliveries coupled with an expanding U.S. defense budget for nuclear-powered submarines drive margin expansion and top-line growth significantly exceeding the base case.
Biggest risk
Submarine Program Descoping
Submarine Program Descoping: Cancellation or significant descoping of major nuclear submarine programs structurally impairs long-term backlog and visibility.
Recommended action
Hold
GD is rated Hold at $346.46 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $353.62, implying +2.07% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $93.7B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 53.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 4.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $15.9 | |
| Shares out | 270M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 21.8x | |
| P/E (forward) | 19.1x | |
| Dividend | $6.36 (1.84%) | |
| Volume | 1,558,411 | |
| Beta | 0.35 | |
| Price target | $376 | +8.4% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 53.8B
- Net income (ttm)
- 4.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $15.9
- P/E (trailing)
- 21.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.1x
- Market cap
- $93.7B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $39.41B | $42.27B | $47.72B | $52.55B | +10.1% |
| Gross profit | $6.62B | $6.67B | $7.36B | $7.95B | +6.3% |
| Operating income | $4.21B | $4.25B | $4.80B | $5.36B | +8.3% |
| Net income | $3.39B | $3.32B | $3.78B | $4.21B | +7.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $12.19 | $12.02 | $13.63 | $15.45 | +8.2% |
| EBITDA | $5.31B | $5.25B | $5.82B | $6.43B | +6.6% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $2.41B | $2.43B | $2.57B | $2.60B | +2.5% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $249
- Fair value (mid)
- $354
- Fair value (high)
- $459
- Current price
- $347
- Upside to mid
- +2.1%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $301 | 35% |
| Forward earnings | $275 | 25% |
| Discounted earnings | $474 | 15% |
| Owner earnings | $520 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $303 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $52.11 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$376
+8.4%
In the news
Latest news · GD
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $93.7B
- P/E (trailing)
- 21.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.1x
- P/S
- 1.7x
- P/B
- 3.6x
- PEG
- 2.49
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 15.2%
- Operating margin
- 10.3%
- ROE
- 18.0%
- ROA
- 6.0%
- ROIC
- 14.0%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.38
- Current ratio
- 1.38
- Quick ratio
- 0.79
Trading
- Beta
- 0.35
- Volume
- 1,558,411
- Dividend yield
- 1.8%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +2.1% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$458.52
+32.3% from spot
Accelerated Gulfstream deliveries coupled with an expanding U.S. defense budget for nuclear-powered submarines drive margin expansion and top-line growth significantly exceeding the base case.
- Revenue growth >5%
- Terminal P/E >20x
- Operating margins expand >11%
Base60%
Price target
$353.62
+2.1% from spot
Stable execution across Marine Systems and Aerospace. The multi-stage moat fade model directly aligns with current market valuation, indicating the stock is fairly valued at current levels.
- Revenue growth 4.5-5% fading to 3%
- Terminal P/E 19x
- Operating margin stable at 10.2%
Bear20%
Price target
$249.18
-28.1% from spot
Continuing resolutions in the U.S. defense budget, acute supply chain bottlenecks, or a severe macroeconomic downturn limiting corporate jet demand compress margins and stunt near-term revenue growth.
- Revenue growth <3%
- Terminal P/E <15x
- Operating margins compress <10%
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $354.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $301 | -13.2% | |
| Forward earnings | 25% | $275 | -20.5% | |
| Discounted earnings | 15% | $474 | +36.9% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $520 | +50.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $303 | -12.5% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $52.1 | -85.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $354 | +2.1% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $428 | $478 | $541 | $619 | $619 |
| 7.8% | $354 | $387 | $428 | $478 | $541 |
| 8.8% | $301 | $325 | $354 | $387 | $428 |
| 9.8% | $263 | $281 | $301 | $325 | $354 |
| 10.8% | $233 | $247 | $263 | $281 | $301 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability6.0
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment7.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality8.0
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
6.8/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core portfolio holding size given extremely low fundamental volatility and high dividend visibility.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$347
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure aggressively if valuation multiples stretch beyond 22x P/E or if core strategic submarine programs face existential federal budget cuts.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E19.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE18
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC14
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All GD indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
280
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 280 of 280 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on GD
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this GD report
What is the current GD stock rating?
General Dynamics Corporation is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full GD analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/GD/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for GD?
The latest report frames GD around $249 to $459. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the GD page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldGD · Fair value $354+2.1% · Confidence 88/100