Corning Incorporated (GLW)
NYSE: GLW · Real-Time Price · USD
$187
+4.54 (+2.5%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: GLW rated Sell
GLW is rated Sell at $186.94 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $68.55, implying -63.33% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$68.5 / share
$55.4 – $82.4
Upside to FV
-63.3%
from $187
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Near-term internal valuation cross-checks growth is strong, but insufficient to offset the monumental valuation premium.
Biggest risk
Prolonged Telco Winter
Prolonged Telco Winter: Carriers permanently reduce fiber capex due to shifting to wireless last-mile or structural funding issues.
Recommended action
Sell
GLW is rated Sell at $186.94 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $68.55, implying -63.33% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $160.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 16.3B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.8B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.08 | |
| Shares out | 860.6M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 90.0x | |
| P/E (forward) | 44.4x | |
| Dividend | $1.12 (0.60%) | |
| Volume | 20,589,363 | |
| Beta | 1.14 | |
| Price target | $173 | -7.2% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Corning IncorporatedGLW
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 16.3B
- Net income (ttm)
- 1.8B
- EPS (ttm)
- $2.08
- P/E (trailing)
- 90.0x
- P/E (forward)
- 44.4x
- Market cap
- $160.9B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $14.19B | $12.59B | $13.12B | $15.63B | +2.4% |
| Gross profit | — | $4.51B | $3.93B | $4.28B | $5.62B | +5.7% |
| Operating income | — | $1.44B | $890.0M | $1.14B | $2.28B | +12.2% |
| Net income | — | $1.32B | $581.0M | $506.0M | $1.60B | +4.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.28 | $1.54 | $0.68 | $0.58 | $1.83 | +9.3% |
| EBITDA | — | $3.54B | $2.51B | $2.49B | $3.74B | +1.3% |
| R&D | — | $1.05B | $1.08B | $1.09B | $1.11B | +1.5% |
| SG&A | — | $1.90B | $1.84B | $1.93B | $2.12B | +2.8% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $55.4
- Fair value (mid)
- $68.5
- Fair value (high)
- $82.4
- Current price
- $187
- Upside to mid
- -63.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $71.11 | 40% |
| FCFF DCF | $51.89 | 40% |
| Discounted earnings | $96.77 | 20% |
| Ddm | $19.97 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $78.09 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $10.52 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $50.30 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$173
-7.2%
In the news
Latest news · GLW
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $160.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 90.0x
- P/E (forward)
- 44.4x
- P/S
- 9.9x
- P/B
- 14.4x
- PEG
- 2.03
- EV / EBITDA
- 43.3x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 36.4%
- Operating margin
- 15.5%
- ROE
- 16.7%
- ROA
- 5.4%
- ROIC
- 10.4%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.80
- Current ratio
- 1.61
- Quick ratio
- 0.75
Trading
- Beta
- 1.14
- Volume
- 20,589,363
- Dividend yield
- 0.6%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -63.3% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$82.37
-55.9% from spot
A sustained super-cycle in infrastructure and consumer device upgrades drives structural margin expansion. The market fully rewards the resulting FCF growth.
- Revenue CAGR of 5% driven by super-cycle in broadband and 5G.
- Operating margins permanently expand to 20% on scale.
- Terminal growth rate of 3%.
Base60%
Price target
$68.55
-63.3% from spot
The company executes steadily, but the current market price implies unrealistic perpetual growth of nearly 25%. Intrinsic value remains fundamentally anchored lower.
- Revenue normalizes to 2.5% long-term growth.
- Operating margins remain stable around 15%.
- Capex requirements remain in line with historical averages.
Bear20%
Price target
$55.37
-70.4% from spot
A synchronized downturn in both consumer and infrastructure end-markets exposes the high fixed cost structure, leading to severe free cash flow deterioration.
- Prolonged telco capex winter stunts growth.
- Display price wars compress gross margins.
- Terminal multiple contracts to 12x on cyclical fears.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $68.5.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 40% | $71.1 | -62.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 40% | $51.9 | -72.2% | |
| Discounted earnings | 20% | $96.8 | -48.2% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $20.0 | -89.3% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $78.1 | -58.2% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $10.5 | -94.4% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $50.3 | -73.1% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $68.5 | -63.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $84.2 | $92.7 | $103 | $116 | $124 |
| 7.9% | $71.1 | $77.1 | $84.2 | $92.7 | $103 |
| 8.9% | $61.5 | $66.0 | $71.1 | $77.1 | $84.2 |
| 9.9% | $54.3 | $57.7 | $61.5 | $66.0 | $71.1 |
| 10.9% | $48.5 | $51.2 | $54.3 | $57.7 | $61.5 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
6.6/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Avoid. The extreme premium to intrinsic value precludes any long position, despite the quality of the underlying business.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$187
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Current holders should aggressively trim or exit the position to lock in speculative gains.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E44.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE16.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC10.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All GLW indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
285
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 285 of 285 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on GLW
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this GLW report
What is the current GLW stock rating?
Corning Incorporated is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full GLW analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/GLW/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for GLW?
The latest report frames GLW around $55 to $82. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the GLW page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellGLW · Fair value $68.5-63.3% · Confidence 88/100