Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
NASDAQ: NFLX · Real-Time Price · USD
$87.5
-0.76 (-0.9%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: NFLX rated Buy
Buy. At $88.25, the intrinsic FCF compounding profile offers compelling, highly visible upside to the $102.65 target.
Fair value (mid)
$103 / share
$75.1 – $131
Upside to FV
+16.3%
from $87.5
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Successful scaling of the ad-supported tier and password sharing monetization exceed expectations, accelerating ARPU and driving sustained operating margins into the mid-30s. Robust FCF compounding pushes value toward the high end.
Biggest risk
Subscriber churn from price hikes
Subscriber churn from price hikes: Continuous price increases combined with macroeconomic pressures cause severe UCAN subscriber churn, degrading the core cash flow engine.
Recommended action
Buy
Buy. The company provides a highly visible path to sustained 30% operating margins and compounding free cash flow, thoroughly protected by structural scale.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $371.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 46.9B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 13.4B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $3.10 | |
| Shares out | 4.2B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 28.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 23.0x | |
| Volume | 36,215,113 | |
| Beta | 1.55 | |
| Price target | $119 | +36.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Netflix, Inc.NFLX
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 46.9B
- Net income (ttm)
- 13.4B
- EPS (ttm)
- $3.10
- P/E (trailing)
- 28.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 23.0x
- Market cap
- $371.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $31.62B | $33.72B | $39.00B | $45.18B | +12.6% |
| Gross profit | $12.45B | $14.01B | $17.96B | $21.91B | +20.7% |
| Operating income | $5.63B | $6.95B | $10.42B | $13.33B | +33.2% |
| Net income | $4.49B | $5.41B | $8.71B | $10.98B | +34.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.00 | $1.20 | $1.98 | $2.53 | +36.5% |
| EBITDA | $20.33B | $21.51B | $26.31B | $30.25B | +14.2% |
| R&D | $2.71B | $2.68B | $2.93B | $3.39B | +7.7% |
| SG&A | $4.10B | $4.38B | $4.62B | $5.19B | +8.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $75.1
- Fair value (mid)
- $103
- Fair value (high)
- $131
- Current price
- $87.5
- Upside to mid
- +16.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $75.97 | 30% |
| Discounted earnings | $48.77 | 10% |
| Forward earnings | $84.46 | 25% |
| Owner earnings | $210 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $135 | 20% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $118 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$119
+36.3%
In the news
Latest news · NFLX
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $371.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 28.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 23.0x
- P/S
- 7.9x
- P/B
- 11.8x
- PEG
- 1.27
- EV / EBITDA
- 26.1x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 49.0%
- Operating margin
- 29.7%
- ROE
- 48.5%
- ROA
- 15.4%
- ROIC
- 33.1%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.54
- Current ratio
- 1.41
- Quick ratio
- 1.18
Trading
- Beta
- 1.55
- Volume
- 36,215,113
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +25.9% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$130.73
+48.1% from spot
Successful scaling of the ad-supported tier and password sharing monetization exceed expectations, accelerating ARPU and driving sustained operating margins into the mid-30s. Robust FCF compounding pushes value toward the high end.
- Terminal multiple expands to 25x
- Operating margins comfortably reach and sustain 35%
Base60%
Price target
$102.65
+16.3% from spot
Netflix leverages its global scale and pricing power to drive margin expansion and robust free cash flow generation. Steady ad-tier adoption supports targeted 30% operating margins and continuous compounding.
- Terminal multiple stabilizes at 22x
- Operating margins hit 30% without significant demand destruction
Bear20%
Price target
$75.08
-14.9% from spot
Intense streaming competition limits pricing power. Macro headwinds stall ad-tier adoption and force elevated content spending to maintain engagement, capping free cash flow and permanently compressing operating margins.
- Terminal multiple drops to 15x
- Operating margins compress to 20% amid fierce competition
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $103.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $76.0 | -13.2% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $48.8 | -44.3% | |
| Forward earnings | 25% | $84.5 | -3.5% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $210 | +140.5% | |
| FCFF DCF | 20% | $135 | +53.8% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $118 | +35.2% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $103 | +16.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $128 | $138 | $150 | $165 | $182 |
| 9.7% | $111 | $119 | $128 | $138 | $150 |
| 10.7% | $98.3 | $104 | $111 | $119 | $128 |
| 11.7% | $88.1 | $92.9 | $98.3 | $104 | $111 |
| 12.7% | $79.9 | $83.8 | $88.1 | $92.9 | $98.3 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment5.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency8.5
Weighted composite
7.2/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 8.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core holding. Size appropriately for a mature compounder offering a highly visible cash flow compounding trajectory.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$87.5
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim position if valuation multiples extend past the $130 bull-case target or if structural core subscriber churn emerges in UCAN.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E23
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE48.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC33.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All NFLX indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
273
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 273 of 273 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on NFLX
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this NFLX report
What is the current NFLX stock rating?
Netflix, Inc. is currently shown with Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full NFLX analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/NFLX/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for NFLX?
The latest report frames NFLX around $75 to $131. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the NFLX page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
BuyNFLX · Fair value $103+16.3% · Confidence 88/100