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PYPL trades against a final fair-value range of $76.10-$124.14, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $76.1, high $124, with mid-point at $100.
Stock analysis

PYPL fair value $76–$124

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizzato: 2026-05-09Prossimo aggiornamento: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Prezzo
$45.37
▲ +54.72 (+120.61%)
Valore equo
$100
$76–$124
Valutazione
Acquisto forte
confidence 88/100
Potenziale rialzo
+120.6%
upside to fair value
Margine di Sicurezza
$85.08
MoS level · 15%
Capitalizzazione
$40.0B
P/E fwd 7.8
Fallback in ingleseIT
Mostrando la fonte in inglese mentre traduciamo
Questo report non è ancora stato tradotto. Aggiorna tra qualche minuto una volta che la coda di traduzione avrà recuperato.

§1 Sintesi

  • Composite fair value $100 with high case $124.
  • Implied upside of 120.6% to fair value.
  • Moat 6/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$100
Margin of safety
+54.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$45.37Price
Low $76.10
Mid $100.09
High $124.14

PYPL trades against a final fair-value range of $76.10-$124.14, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Two-sided global network scale with
    Two-sided global network scale with over 400 million active accounts.
  • Deep, legacy merchant integrations via
    Deep, legacy merchant integrations via core checkout and Braintree.
  • Bull thesis
    The market is severely mispricing PayPal with a 7.8x forward P/E, a multiple typical of a credit-risk heavy lender rather than an asset-light transaction network.

§2 Scenario ribassista

A rapid macroeconomic consumption contraction coincides with accelerated Apple Pay market share gains, severely compressing high-margin branded checkout volume. PayPal is forced to slash Braintree pricing to retain key enterprise merchants, collapsing transaction margin dollars. Operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. turns negative, breaking the $5B free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. floor and abruptly terminating the share repurchase thesis.

Come questa tesi può fallire

Apple Pay iOS Dominance

· High

Apple heavily restricts iOS payment routing or disadvantages third-party wallets, structurally locking PayPal out of mobile web checkout growth.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
12-24 months

Braintree Commoditization

· Medium

Adyen and Stripe trigger a race to zero on unbranded processing fees, obliterating PayPal's enterprise segment transaction margins permanently.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
24-36 months

Fastlane SMB Failure

· Medium

Failure to achieve meaningful penetration with the Fastlane product leaves PayPal's core highly profitable SMB segment vulnerable to Shop Pay.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
12-18 months
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
MetricaAttualeSoglia di attivazione
Branded checkout volume growth remains negative year-over-year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Overall transaction margin declines below 40% for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Active account churn accelerates past low-single digits globally.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow drops below $4.0B annualized, threatening the buyback cadence.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins breach the 15% absolute floor despite headcount reductions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Storia finanziaria

Conto economico — ultimi sei periodi

Voce2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Ricavi$27.52B$29.77B+8.2%$31.80B+6.8%$33.17B+4.3%+6.4%
Utile lordo$13.77B$13.70B$14.66B$15.47B+3.9%
Reddito operativo$4.04B$4.94B$5.76B$6.40B+16.5%
Utile netto$2.42B$4.25B+75.6%$4.15B-2.4%$5.23B+26.0%+29.3%
EPS (diluito)$2.09$3.84$3.99$5.41+37.3%
EBITDA$4.99B$6.83B$6.74B$7.70B+15.6%
R&S$3.25B$2.97B$2.98B$3.10B-1.6%
SG&A$4.36B$3.87B$4.15B$4.26B-0.7%

Punteggi di qualità

Piotroski F-score
9 / 9
Composito qualità 0–9
Altman Z-score
1.86
Rischio di fallimento (>3 sicuro)
Beneish M-score
-2.54
Rischio di manipolazione degli utili
OCF / Utile netto
1.23×
>1 indica alta qualità degli utili
Soglia di qualità contabile
Pass
Soglia corretta per settore
ROIC
17.6%
Rendimento del capitale investito
Abbonati individuali — da §4 in poi11 sezioni in più

Leggi l'analisi completa — 11 sezioni in più.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

PYPL intrinsic value questions

  1. PYPL (PYPL)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

PYPL — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, PYPL looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $45.4 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $100 (range $76.1–$124), which implies roughly 120.6% upside to the midpoint.

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