T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)
NASDAQ: TMUS · Real-Time Price · USD
$194
-0.56 (-0.3%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: TMUS rated Buy
TMUS is rated Buy at $193.63 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $238.55, implying +23.20% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$239 / share
$191 – $287
Upside to FV
+23.2%
from $194
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
TMUS is no longer a hyper-growth disruptor, but a formidable cash flow machine.
Biggest risk
Cable MVNO Margin Squeeze
Bear risk is fully centered on the structural limits of industry pricing power and fixed wireless capacity.
Recommended action
Buy
TMUS is rated Buy at $193.63 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $238.55, implying +23.20% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $209.5B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 90.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 10.5B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $9.41 | |
| Shares out | 1.1B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 20.6x | |
| P/E (forward) | 13.9x | |
| Dividend | $4.08 (2.11%) | |
| Volume | 3,871,551 | |
| Beta | 0.32 | |
| Price target | $257 | +32.5% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
T-Mobile US, Inc.TMUS
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 90.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 10.5B
- EPS (ttm)
- $9.41
- P/E (trailing)
- 20.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 13.9x
- Market cap
- $209.5B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $79.57B | $78.56B | $81.40B | $88.31B | +3.5% |
| Gross profit | $43.37B | $48.37B | $51.75B | $55.54B | +8.6% |
| Operating income | $8.11B | $14.24B | $18.01B | $18.56B | +31.8% |
| Net income | $2.59B | $8.32B | $11.34B | $10.99B | +61.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.06 | $6.93 | $9.66 | $9.72 | +67.7% |
| EBITDA | $20.16B | $27.15B | $31.04B | $31.56B | +16.1% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $21.61B | $21.31B | $20.82B | $23.47B | +2.8% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $191
- Fair value (mid)
- $239
- Fair value (high)
- $287
- Current price
- $194
- Upside to mid
- +23.2%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $178 | 60% |
| FCFF DCF | $375 | 20% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $284 | 20% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $113 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $1180 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $476 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $61.10 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$257
+32.5%
In the news
Latest news · TMUS
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $209.5B
- P/E (trailing)
- 20.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 13.9x
- P/S
- 2.3x
- P/B
- 3.8x
- PEG
- 0.98
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.8x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 63.3%
- Operating margin
- 21.6%
- ROE
- 18.0%
- ROA
- 5.7%
- ROIC
- 8.5%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 2.19
- Current ratio
- 1.09
- Quick ratio
- 0.70
Trading
- Beta
- 0.32
- Volume
- 3,871,551
- Dividend yield
- 2.1%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +23.2% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$286.83
+48.1% from spot
Superior 5G spectrum drives persistent rural and enterprise share gains. FWA scales without capacity limits, and operating leverage expands FCF massively, funding outsized buybacks.
- Revenue CAGR > 5%
- Terminal multiple expands to 16x
- Operating margins exceed 23%
Base60%
Price target
$238.55
+23.2% from spot
TMUS successfully manages the mature telecom transition. Share gains moderate but FCF remains highly robust, supporting the planned capital return phase despite typical industry competitive intensity.
- Revenue CAGR normalizes to 3-4%
- Terminal multiple anchored at 14x
- Steady FCF funding buybacks/dividends
Bear20%
Price target
$190.98
-1.4% from spot
Cable MVNOs trigger a structural ARPU decline. FWA growth stalls due to spectrum constraints, and the heavy debt load restricts multiple expansion, compressing valuation toward legacy peers.
- Revenue growth stalls at 1-2%
- Terminal multiple compresses to 11x
- Margin contraction from promotional intensity
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $239.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 60% | $178 | -8.1% | |
| FCFF DCF | 20% | $375 | +93.7% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 20% | $284 | +46.7% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $113 | -41.7% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $1180 | +509.5% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $476 | +145.8% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $61.1 | -68.4% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $239 | +23.2% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.3% | $341 | $417 | $417 | $417 | $417 |
| 4.3% | $239 | $281 | $341 | $417 | $417 |
| 5.3% | $183 | $207 | $239 | $281 | $341 |
| 6.3% | $149 | $164 | $183 | $207 | $239 |
| 7.3% | $131 | $136 | $149 | $164 | $183 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet3.5
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment5.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality6.0
Capital Efficiency5.0
Weighted composite
5.6/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core portfolio holding given defensive characteristics paired with above-market capital return dynamics.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$194
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure near $285 if FWA growth slows or if the valuation premium to VZ/T stretches beyond historical norms without corresponding underlying growth.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E13.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE18
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC8.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All TMUS indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
271
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 271 of 271 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on TMUS
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this TMUS report
What is the current TMUS stock rating?
T-Mobile US, Inc. is currently shown with Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full TMUS analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/TMUS/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for TMUS?
The latest report frames TMUS around $191 to $287. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the TMUS page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
BuyTMUS · Fair value $239+23.2% · Confidence 88/100