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VZ trades against a final fair-value range of $44.81-$87.77, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $44.8, high $87.8, with mid-point at $65.6.
Stock analysis

VZ fair value $45–$88

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizzato: 2026-05-08Prossimo aggiornamento: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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Prezzo
$47.22
▲ +18.42 (+39.01%)
Valore equo
$66
$45–$88
Valutazione
Acquisto forte
confidence 72/100
Potenziale rialzo
+39.0%
upside to fair value
Margine di Sicurezza
$55.79
MoS level · 15%
Capitalizzazione
$197.2B
P/E fwd 9.0
Fallback in ingleseIT
Mostrando la fonte in inglese mentre traduciamo
Questo report non è ancora stato tradotto. Aggiorna tra qualche minuto una volta che la coda di traduzione avrà recuperato.

§1 Sintesi

  • Composite fair value $66 with high case $88.
  • Implied upside of 39.0% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 72/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$66
Margin of safety
+28.1%
Confidence
72/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$47.22Price
Low $44.81
Mid $65.64
High $87.77

VZ trades against a final fair-value range of $44.81-$87.77, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Massive scale in US wireless
    Massive scale in US wireless market
  • High barriers to entry for
    High barriers to entry for network infrastructure
  • Cycle upside
    Peak 5G capex is behind us, entering a harvesting phase with expanding free cash flow.

§2 Scenario ribassista

Prolonged high interest rates paired with aggressive price wars from competitors compress margins, forcing Verizon to choose between maintaining its high dividend yieldDividend yieldTrailing or indicated annual dividend divided by share price. The cash income return on equity, before any capital appreciation or buybacks. and adequately investing in its network infrastructure.

Come questa tesi può fallire

Dividend Cut

· Low

Free cash flow fails to cover dividend obligations due to severe ARPU contraction or unexpected capex requirements, triggering massive yield-focused retail selling.

FV impact
Catastrophic

T-Mobile Dominance

· Medium

T-Mobile captures the vast majority of postpaid phone net additions over the next 3 years, structurally eroding Verizon's premium brand positioning and pricing power.

FV impact
High

Debt Refinancing Crisis

· Low

A structurally higher interest rate environment severely increases interest expenses as Verizon's massive debt load rolls over, eating into equity returns.

FV impact
Moderate
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
MetricaAttualeSoglia di attivazione
Postpaid phone net subscriber lossesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising churn rates in consumer segmentMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
ARPU growth decelerationMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow falling below $15BMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Debt/EBITDA ratio expanding beyond 3.5xMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Storia finanziaria

Conto economico — ultimi sei periodi

Voce2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Ricavi$133.61B$136.84B+2.4%$133.97B-2.1%$134.79B+0.6%$138.19B+2.5%+0.8%
Utile lordo$77.31B$77.70B$79.09B$80.69B$81.43B+1.3%
Reddito operativo$32.45B$30.47B$28.72B$28.69B$29.26B-2.6%
Utile netto$22.07B$21.26B-3.7%$11.61B-45.4%$17.51B+50.8%$17.17B-1.9%-6.1%
EPS (diluito)$5.32$5.06$2.75$4.14$4.06-6.5%
EBITDA$49.11B$48.98B$40.14B$47.52B$47.72B-0.7%
R&S
SG&A$28.66B$30.14B$32.75B$34.11B$33.82B+4.2%

Punteggi di qualità

Piotroski F-score
6 / 9
Composito qualità 0–9
Altman Z-score
1.27
Rischio di fallimento (>3 sicuro)
Beneish M-score
-2.69
Rischio di manipolazione degli utili
OCF / Utile netto
2.16×
>1 indica alta qualità degli utili
Soglia di qualità contabile
Pass
Soglia corretta per settore
ROIC
8.8%
Rendimento del capitale investito
Abbonati individuali — da §4 in poi11 sezioni in più

Leggi l'analisi completa — 11 sezioni in più.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

VZ intrinsic value questions

  1. VZ (VZ)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.
FAQ

VZ — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, VZ looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $47.2 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $65.6 (range $44.8–$87.8), which implies roughly 39.0% upside to the midpoint.
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