Western Digital Corporation (WDC)
NASDAQ: WDC · Real-Time Price · USD
$480
+16.10 (+3.5%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: WDC rated Sell
WDC is rated Sell at $480.00 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $205.87, implying -57.11% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 57/100.
Fair value (mid)
$206 / share
$143 – $297
Upside to FV
-57.1%
from $480
Confidence
57/100
Moat
3/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: The AI storage boom structurally extends the current cycle, allowing WDC to sustain peak profitability while unlocking conglomerate discount value through its impending split.
Biggest risk
Cyclical Bust and Oversupply
Cyclical Bust and Oversupply: A glut in NAND/HDD capacity causes pricing to collapse rapidly, driving operating margins back into negative territory.
Recommended action
Sell
WDC is rated Sell at $480.00 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $205.87, implying -57.11% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 57/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $165.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 11.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 6.4B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $18.3 | |
| Shares out | 344.7M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 26.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 27.6x | |
| Dividend | $0.60 (0.13%) | |
| Volume | 7,929,877 | |
| Beta | 2.16 | |
| Price target | $342 | -28.8% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Western Digital CorporationWDC
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 11.8B
- Net income (ttm)
- 6.4B
- EPS (ttm)
- $18.3
- P/E (trailing)
- 26.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 27.6x
- Market cap
- $165.4B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-06-30 | 2023-06-30 | 2024-06-30 | 2025-06-30 | Trend |
| Revenue | $18.79B | $6.26B | $6.32B | $9.52B | -20.3% |
| Gross profit | $5.87B | $1.39B | $1.77B | $3.69B | -14.3% |
| Operating income | $2.43B | $-402.0M | $97.0M | $2.13B | -4.3% |
| Net income | $1.55B | $-1.68B | $-798.0M | $1.86B | +6.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.75 | $-5.44 | $-1.72 | $5.12 | +2.5% |
| EBITDA | $3.40B | $289.0M | $243.0M | $1.94B | -17.1% |
| R&D | $2.32B | $986.0M | $950.0M | $994.0M | -24.6% |
| SG&A | $1.12B | $807.0M | $726.0M | $568.0M | -20.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $143
- Fair value (mid)
- $206
- Fair value (high)
- $297
- Current price
- $480
- Upside to mid
- -57.1%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $251 | 55% |
| FCFF DCF | $54.38 | 25% |
| Owner earnings | $180 | 10% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $360 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $143 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $312 | 0% |
| Ddm | $6.75 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$342
-28.8%
In the news
Latest news · WDC
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $165.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 26.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 27.6x
- P/S
- 14.0x
- P/B
- 17.1x
- PEG
- 0.50
- EV / EBITDA
- 41.7x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 45.4%
- Operating margin
- 31.3%
- ROE
- 85.9%
- ROA
- 14.6%
- ROIC
- 41.9%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.18
- Current ratio
- 1.49
- Quick ratio
- 1.11
Trading
- Beta
- 2.16
- Volume
- 7,929,877
- Dividend yield
- 0.1%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -58.8% expected return to fair value
Bull15%
Price target
$297.11
-38.1% from spot
The AI storage boom structurally extends the current cycle, allowing WDC to sustain peak profitability while unlocking conglomerate discount value through its impending split.
- AI-driven demand extends the upcycle
- Successful flash business spin-off unlocks value
- Peak margins hold for 24+ months
Base50%
Price target
$205.87
-57.1% from spot
Spot pricing and internal valuation cross-checks dangerously extrapolate cycle-peak earnings. We assume a reversion to normalized margins and a cyclical bust, highlighting massive downside risk from current prices.
- Cycle normalization begins within 12-18 months
- Operating margins revert to a normalized 12%
- Revenue drops 10% in Year 4 modeling the next trough
Bear35%
Price target
$142.93
-70.2% from spot
A glut in capacity causes pricing to collapse rapidly. Operating margins crater back into negative territory as seen in 2023, pressuring the balance sheet.
- Rapid collapse in NAND/HDD pricing
- Hyperscaler demand normalizes abruptly
- Competitors break supply discipline
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $206.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 55% | $251 | -47.6% | |
| FCFF DCF | 25% | $54.4 | -88.7% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $180 | -62.4% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 10% | $360 | -24.9% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $143 | -70.2% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $312 | -35.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $6.75 | -98.6% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $206 | -57.1% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.0% | $276 | $291 | $307 | $325 | $346 |
| 12.0% | $251 | $263 | $276 | $291 | $307 |
| 13.0% | $230 | $240 | $251 | $263 | $276 |
| 14.0% | $213 | $221 | $230 | $240 | $251 |
| 15.0% | $197 | $205 | $213 | $221 | $230 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet7.0
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat3.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency4.5
Weighted composite
6.4/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 4.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 57/100
Target weight
Maximum 0% allocation. The downside risk is too extreme for capital deployment.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$480
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate all existing positions immediately to harvest peak-cycle valuations.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E27.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE85.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC41.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All WDC indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
280
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 280 of 280 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on WDC
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this WDC report
What is the current WDC stock rating?
Western Digital Corporation is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full WDC analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/WDC/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for WDC?
The latest report frames WDC around $143 to $297. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the WDC page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellWDC · Fair value $206-57.1% · Confidence 57/100