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AbbVie is successfully navigating the Humira patent cliff by driving strong growth in its newer immunology assets, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The company remains a highly cash-generative powerhouse capable of supporting a robust and growing dividend. Fair value range: low $153, high $255, with mid-point at $204.
Stock analysis

ABBV fair value $153–$255

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-08次回更新: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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株価
$202.71
▲ +0.96 (+0.47%)
公正価値
$204
$153–$255
評価
ホールド
confidence 88/100
上昇余地
+0.5%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$173.12
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$358.5B
P/E fwd 12.5
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Strong immunology execution offsetting Humira cliff.
  • GAAP EPS vastly understates $13B+ FCF capacity.
  • Fairly valued at current levels; maintain position.
Fair value
$204
Margin of safety
+0.5%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$202.71Price
Low $152.59
Mid $203.67
High $254.75

AbbVie is successfully navigating the Humira patent cliff by driving strong growth in its newer immunology assets, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The company remains a highly cash-generative powerhouse capable of supporting a robust and growing dividend.

  • Intellectual property and robust pipeline
    Intellectual property and robust pipeline in immunology, oncology, and aesthetics.
  • Scale and distribution networks globally
    Scale and distribution networks globally.
  • Cycle upside
    Aging population and increasing prevalence of autoimmune diseases drive secular volume growth. Innovation in targeted therapies commands premium pricing.

§2 ベアケース

A severe margin contraction driven by pricing reform and aggressive biosimilar uptake stresses FCFFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics.. Debt load from Allergan acquisition amplifies equity risk, constraining dividend growth and leading to a structural multiple de-rating.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Accelerated Humira Erosion

· Medium

Biosimilar competition erodes Humira revenues significantly faster than projected, compressing margins.

FV impact
-15%

Skyrizi/Rinvoq Disappointment

· Low

Key immunology assets fail to reach peak sales targets or face unexpected safety concerns.

FV impact
-20%

Pricing Regulation

· High

Aggressive legislative action structurally reduces pricing power across the pharmaceutical portfolio.

FV impact
-10%
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Humira revenue decline exceeding 35% YoY.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Skyrizi/Rinvoq sales missing internal valuation cross-checks for two consecutive quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin contracting below 68%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Debt-to-EBITDA expanding beyond 2.5x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio exceeding 60% of FCF.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期

項目2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高$58.05B$54.32B-6.4%$56.33B+3.7%$61.16B+8.6%+1.8%
売上総利益$40.64B$33.90B$39.43B$42.96B+1.9%
営業利益$18.81B$13.54B$11.89B$20.09B+2.2%
純利益$11.84B$4.86B-59.0%$4.28B-11.9%$4.23B-1.2%-29.1%
EPS (希薄化後)$6.63$2.72$2.39$2.36-29.1%
EBITDA$24.17B$17.17B$14.91B$17.63B-10.0%
研究開発$6.51B$7.68B$12.79B$9.10B+11.8%
販管費$15.26B$12.87B$14.75B$14.01B-2.8%

品質スコア

Piotroski F-スコア
5 / 9
0–9 品質コンポジット
OCF / 純利益
4.5×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Pass
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
11.7%
投下資本利益率
個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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BALANCE SHEET FAQ

ABBV balance sheet questions

  1. ABBV (ABBV)'s balance sheet section reports total assets, total liabilities, shareholders' equity, and the structure of debt versus cash so leverage and liquidity can be read directly.
FAQ

ABBV — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ABBV trades close to fair value. The current price is $203 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $204 (range $153–$255), which implies roughly 0.5% upside to the midpoint.
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