Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
NASDAQ: ADBE · Real-Time Price · USD
$253
-3.46 (-1.4%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: ADBE rated Strong Buy
Strong Buy due to extreme multiple compression and robust cash flow.
Fair value (mid)
$413 / share
$322 – $505
Upside to FV
+63.2%
from $253
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Successful monetization of generative AI tools across Creative Cloud accelerates ARPU, while Digital Experience re-accelerates, driving sustained growth and multiple expansion.
Biggest risk
Generative AI Displacement
Generative AI Displacement: Competitors use open-source AI to replicate Adobe's core creative features, eliminating the need for premium subscriptions.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
Strong Buy. The dislocation between resilient structural cash flows and the punitive market multiple creates an exceptional asymmetry.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $102.3B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 24.5B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 7.2B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $17.2 | |
| Shares out | 404.2M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 14.8x | |
| P/E (forward) | 9.6x | |
| Volume | 3,667,468 | |
| Beta | 1.42 | |
| Price target | $347 | +37.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Adobe Inc.ADBE
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 24.5B
- Net income (ttm)
- 7.2B
- EPS (ttm)
- $17.2
- P/E (trailing)
- 14.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 9.6x
- Market cap
- $102.3B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-11-30 | 2023-11-30 | 2024-11-30 | 2025-11-30 | Trend |
| Revenue | $17.61B | $19.41B | $21.51B | $23.77B | +10.5% |
| Gross profit | $15.44B | $17.06B | $19.15B | $21.22B | +11.2% |
| Operating income | $6.10B | $6.65B | $7.74B | $8.71B | +12.6% |
| Net income | $4.76B | $5.43B | $5.56B | $7.13B | +14.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $10.10 | $11.82 | $12.36 | $16.70 | +18.2% |
| EBITDA | $6.98B | $7.78B | $7.96B | $9.82B | +12.1% |
| R&D | $2.99B | $3.47B | $3.94B | $4.29B | +12.9% |
| SG&A | $6.19B | $6.76B | $7.29B | $8.06B | +9.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $322
- Fair value (mid)
- $413
- Fair value (high)
- $505
- Current price
- $253
- Upside to mid
- +63.2%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted earnings | $363 | 25% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $376 | 30% |
| Owner earnings | $626 | 10% |
| Forward earnings | $440 | 20% |
| FCFF DCF | $389 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $399 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Hold
Price target
$347
+37.3%
In the news
Latest news · ADBE
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $102.3B
- P/E (trailing)
- 14.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 9.6x
- P/S
- 4.2x
- P/B
- 9.0x
- PEG
- 0.81
- EV / EBITDA
- 10.7x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 89.4%
- Operating margin
- 36.9%
- ROE
- 58.8%
- ROA
- 18.9%
- ROIC
- 63.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.58
- Current ratio
- 0.91
- Quick ratio
- 0.79
Trading
- Beta
- 1.42
- Volume
- 3,667,468
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +73.8% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$505.19
+99.6% from spot
Successful monetization of generative AI tools across Creative Cloud accelerates ARPU, while Digital Experience re-accelerates, driving sustained growth and multiple expansion.
- Double-digit top-line growth
- Multiple expansion > 25x PE
- Successful AI monetization
Base60%
Price target
$413.04
+63.2% from spot
Adobe maintains dominance with a sticky model. Despite near-term growth decelerating to high single digits, extreme cash flow generation and aggressive buybacks drive compounding.
- 9-10% near-term growth
- 36.5% operating margins
- 18x normalized terminal PE
Bear20%
Price target
$322.47
+27.4% from spot
Generative AI democratizes content creation, reducing the need for proprietary tools. Pricing power erodes, growth stalls, and current multiple compression becomes permanent.
- Low single-digit growth
- Permanent multiple compression to ~14x PE
- Erosion of pricing power
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $413.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted earnings | 25% | $363 | +43.6% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $376 | +48.6% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $626 | +147.3% | |
| Forward earnings | 20% | $440 | +73.8% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $389 | +53.7% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $399 | +57.7% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $413 | +63.2% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.4% | $435 | $472 | $516 | $569 | $634 |
| 9.4% | $376 | $403 | $435 | $472 | $516 |
| 10.4% | $331 | $352 | $376 | $403 | $435 |
| 11.4% | $296 | $312 | $331 | $352 | $376 |
| 12.4% | $267 | $281 | $296 | $312 | $331 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation9.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet4.0
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment4.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality8.0
Capital Efficiency8.5
Weighted composite
7.1/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 4.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 4.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 8.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Overweight. Current multiple compression offers a massive margin of safety.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$253
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Re-evaluate if multiple expands past 25x or if core ARR retention structurally degrades.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E9.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE58.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC63.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All ADBE indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
276
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 276 of 276 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on ADBE
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this ADBE report
What is the current ADBE stock rating?
Adobe Inc. is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full ADBE analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/ADBE/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for ADBE?
The latest report frames ADBE around $322 to $505. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the ADBE page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyADBE · Fair value $413+63.2% · Confidence 88/100