AppLovin Corporation (APP)
NASDAQ: APP · Real-Time Price · USD
$469
-30.33 (-6.1%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: APP rated Sell
APP is rated Sell at $468.55 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $347.80, implying -25.77% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100.
Fair value (mid)
$348 / share
$223 – $481
Upside to FV
-25.8%
from $469
Confidence
87/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
The market is pricing AppLovin for structural perfection with implied 10-year growth rates near 30%.
Biggest risk
OS Privacy Blackout
Fundamental DCF models strictly enforce mean-reversion, exposing deep downside risk.
Recommended action
Sell
APP is rated Sell at $468.55 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $347.80, implying -25.77% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $157.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 6.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 4B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $11.6 | |
| Shares out | 335.9M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 40.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 21.5x | |
| Volume | 7,766,862 | |
| Beta | 2.37 | |
| Price target | $691 | +47.5% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
AppLovin CorporationAPP
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 6.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- 4B
- EPS (ttm)
- $11.6
- P/E (trailing)
- 40.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 21.5x
- Market cap
- $157.4B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $2.82B | $1.84B | $3.22B | $5.48B | +24.8% |
| Gross profit | $1.56B | $1.49B | $2.70B | $4.82B | +45.6% |
| Operating income | $-47.8M | $772.4M | $1.91B | $4.15B | — |
| Net income | $-192.7M | $357.2M | $1.58B | $3.33B | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-0.52 | $0.98 | $4.53 | $9.75 | — |
| EBITDA | $513.8M | $1.26B | $2.38B | $4.35B | +103.9% |
| R&D | $507.6M | $333.8M | $374.7M | $226.5M | -23.6% |
| SG&A | $1.10B | $379.0M | $417.8M | $437.2M | -26.5% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $223
- Fair value (mid)
- $348
- Fair value (high)
- $481
- Current price
- $469
- Upside to mid
- -25.8%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $275 | 30% |
| Forward earnings | $513 | 30% |
| Owner earnings | $371 | 20% |
| Discounted earnings | $199 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $202 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $146 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$691
+47.5%
In the news
Latest news · APP
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $157.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 40.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 21.5x
- P/S
- 25.5x
- P/B
- 66.7x
- PEG
- 0.70
- EV / EBITDA
- 32.5x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 88.4%
- Operating margin
- 77.0%
- ROE
- 266.4%
- ROA
- 44.2%
- ROIC
- 119.6%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.63
- Current ratio
- 3.24
- Quick ratio
- 3.16
Trading
- Beta
- 2.37
- Volume
- 7,766,862
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -25.1% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$481.14
+2.7% from spot
Axon 2.0 seamlessly captures share in non-gaming verticals and CTV. Hyper-growth persists longer than expected, maintaining margins >70% and pushing valuation to 30x multiples.
- Sustained >20% revenue growth in years 3-5.
- Operating margins permanently elevated above 70%.
- Multiple expansion to mega-cap tech levels.
Base60%
Price target
$347.80
-25.8% from spot
Growth decelerates toward industry base rates (3% terminal). Operating margins normalize to 65% as competitive intensity from larger walled gardens increases over a 5-10 year horizon.
- Revenue growth fades from 50% to 8% by year 5.
- Operating margin compresses slightly to 65%.
- 20x terminal multiple reflects mature software compounder.
Bear20%
Price target
$223.34
-52.3% from spot
Mobile OS privacy shocks severely impair Axon's predictive power. Mobile gaming enters a structural recession, destroying ad yields and forcing valuation multiples to historical ad-tech lows.
- Revenue growth stagnates immediately.
- Margins compress to 20% industry averages.
- Terminal growth rate drops below inflation.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $348.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $275 | -41.4% | |
| Forward earnings | 30% | $513 | +9.4% | |
| Owner earnings | 20% | $371 | -20.8% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $199 | -57.5% | |
| FCFF DCF | 5% | $202 | -56.9% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $146 | -68.9% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $348 | -25.8% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.6% | $375 | $391 | $408 | $426 | $446 |
| 15.6% | $348 | $361 | $375 | $391 | $408 |
| 16.6% | $324 | $335 | $348 | $361 | $375 |
| 17.6% | $303 | $313 | $324 | $335 | $348 |
| 18.6% | $285 | $294 | $303 | $313 | $324 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment5.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency8.5
Weighted composite
6.9/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 8.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 87/100
Target weight
Avoid long positions given massive -45% divergence from internal valuation cross-checks and current price fully implying un-fading hyper-growth.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$469
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- For existing holders, taking profits is highly recommended given the extreme valuation sensitivity and euphoric market pricing.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E21.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE266.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC119.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All APP indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
257
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 257 of 257 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on APP
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this APP report
What is the current APP stock rating?
AppLovin Corporation is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full APP analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/APP/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for APP?
The latest report frames APP around $223 to $481. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the APP page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellAPP · Fair value $348-25.8% · Confidence 87/100