BLK trades against a final fair-value range of $458.59-$888.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $459, high $889, with mid-point at $670.
Stock analysis
BlackRock Inc.BLK BlackRock Inc. fair value $670–$889
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$670
Margin of safety
-61.8%
Confidence
77/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$1,084.83Price
FV $670.43
High $888.83
BLK trades against a final fair-value range of $458.59-$888.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Industry-leading AUM scale through iShares
Industry-leading AUM scale through iShares
High switching costs via Aladdin
High switching costs via Aladdin enterprise platform
Cycle upside
Structural shift toward passive ETFs and scaling of private market alternatives.
Based on our latest analysis, BLK looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $1085 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $670 (range $459–$889), which implies roughly 38.2% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for BLK is $459–$889, with a midpoint of $670. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for BlackRock Inc.'s archetype.
Our current rating for BLK is Sell with a confidence score of 77/100. BLK is rated Sell at $1,084.83 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $670.43, implying -38.20% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 77/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for BlackRock Inc. are: Sustained Market Stagnation; Severe Fee War Acceleration; Political Divestment Mandates. The single biggest risk is Sustained Market Stagnation: Extended equity and fixed-income market drawdowns mechanically shrink AUM, severely degrading base management fees and operating leverage.
Our current rating for BLK is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 77/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($459–$889) versus the current price of $1085.
BlackRock Inc. is classified as a financial stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for BLK.
