Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
NASDAQ: CSCO · Real-Time Price · USD
$96.6
+4.41 (+4.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: CSCO rated Sell
CSCO is rated Sell at $96.55 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $65.41, implying -32.25% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100.
Fair value (mid)
$65.4 / share
$50.5 – $80.5
Upside to FV
-32.3%
from $96.6
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Fundamental models show a large disconnect versus implied market expectations.
Biggest risk
Cloud-Native Security Disruption
Cloud-Native Security Disruption: Enterprise customers completely bypass Cisco's integrated security in favor of agile, specialized cloud-native vendors.
Recommended action
Sell
CSCO is rated Sell at $96.55 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $65.41, implying -32.25% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $381.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 59.1B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 11.1B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.78 | |
| Shares out | 3.9B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 34.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 21.4x | |
| Dividend | $1.68 (1.74%) | |
| Volume | 24,652,515 | |
| Beta | 0.91 | |
| Price target | $90.5 | -6.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Cisco Systems, Inc.CSCO
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 59.1B
- Net income (ttm)
- 11.1B
- EPS (ttm)
- $2.78
- P/E (trailing)
- 34.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 21.4x
- Market cap
- $381.4B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-07-31 | 2023-07-31 | 2024-07-31 | 2025-07-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $51.56B | $57.00B | $53.80B | $56.65B | +3.2% |
| Gross profit | $32.25B | $35.75B | $34.83B | $36.79B | +4.5% |
| Operating income | $13.98B | $15.56B | $12.97B | $12.50B | -3.6% |
| Net income | $11.81B | $12.61B | $10.32B | $10.18B | -4.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.82 | $3.07 | $2.54 | $2.61 | -2.5% |
| EBITDA | $16.79B | $17.47B | $15.75B | $15.50B | -2.6% |
| R&D | $6.77B | $7.55B | $7.98B | $9.30B | +11.1% |
| SG&A | $11.19B | $12.36B | $13.18B | $13.96B | +7.7% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $50.5
- Fair value (mid)
- $65.4
- Fair value (high)
- $80.5
- Current price
- $96.6
- Upside to mid
- -32.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | $65.67 | 40% |
| Forward earnings | $57.45 | 30% |
| Discounted earnings | $73.62 | 10% |
| Owner earnings | $102 | 10% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $56.04 | 5% |
| Ddm | $31.46 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $19.17 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$90.5
-6.3%
In the news
Latest news · CSCO
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $381.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 34.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 21.4x
- P/S
- 6.5x
- P/B
- 8.0x
- PEG
- 3.12
- EV / EBITDA
- 24.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 64.8%
- Operating margin
- 23.2%
- ROE
- 23.8%
- ROA
- 7.0%
- ROIC
- 18.8%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.67
- Current ratio
- 0.96
- Quick ratio
- 0.74
Trading
- Beta
- 0.91
- Volume
- 24,652,515
- Dividend yield
- 1.7%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -40.5% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$80.45
-16.7% from spot
Accelerated enterprise adoption of AI infrastructure networking and successful upselling of its integrated cybersecurity and observability software suites drive sustained growth.
- Sustained revenue growth above 5%.
- Operating margins expand toward the high 20s.
- Successful Splunk cross-selling.
Base60%
Price target
$65.41
-32.3% from spot
Cisco executes its software pivot steadily. Massive scale limits growth, but exceptional free cash flow generation provides a strong floor for total shareholder return.
- Top-line growth limited to low-to-mid single digits.
- Stable operating margins around 24%.
- Continued aggressive capital returns.
Bear20%
Price target
$50.52
-47.7% from spot
Intense competition from white-box networking solutions and agile, cloud-native security vendors steadily erodes Cisco's market share, causing revenue to stagnate and forcing margin compression.
- Revenue stagnates due to white-box competition.
- Operating margin compresses below 20%.
- Market completely disregards software transition.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $65.4.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | 40% | $65.7 | -32.0% | |
| Forward earnings | 30% | $57.5 | -40.5% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $73.6 | -23.8% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $102 | +5.3% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 5% | $56.0 | -42.0% | |
| Ddm | 5% | $31.5 | -67.4% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $19.2 | -80.1% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $65.4 | -32.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $79.3 | $88.6 | $100 | $115 | $115 |
| 7.3% | $65.7 | $71.9 | $79.3 | $88.6 | $100 |
| 8.3% | $56.0 | $60.5 | $65.7 | $71.9 | $79.3 |
| 9.3% | $48.8 | $52.2 | $56.0 | $60.5 | $65.7 |
| 10.3% | $43.3 | $45.9 | $48.8 | $52.2 | $56.0 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet4.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment5.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
6.5/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 4.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 87/100
Target weight
Underweight or avoid given the significant premium to fair value.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$96.6
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim positions if the stock remains elevated above $90 without fundamental acceleration.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E21.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE23.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC18.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All CSCO indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
286
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 286 of 286 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on CSCO
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this CSCO report
What is the current CSCO stock rating?
Cisco Systems, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full CSCO analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/CSCO/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for CSCO?
The latest report frames CSCO around $51 to $80. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the CSCO page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellCSCO · Fair value $65.4-32.3% · Confidence 87/100