Quest Diagnostics is a mature, highly cash-generative leader in the US diagnostic testing market. Its robust national network provides durable scale advantages, supporting consistent free cash flow generation and a reliable, growing dividend. With an implied ~19.4x forward P/E, DGX is positioned as a defensive healthcare compounding asset. Fair value range: low $185, high $268, with mid-point at $226.
Composite valuation anchored by Free Cash Flow to Firm (40%) and Forward Earnings (40%).
Fair value
$226
Margin of safety
+15.9%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.
$190.18Price
Low $184.66
Mid $226.02
High $267.84
Quest Diagnostics is a mature, highly cash-generative leader in the US diagnostic testing market. Its robust national network provides durable scale advantages, supporting consistent free cash flow generation and a reliable, growing dividend. With an implied ~19.4x forward P/E, DGX is positioned as a defensive healthcare compounding asset.
Scale Advantage
Unmatched national laboratory network lowers per-test processing costs.
Switching Costs
Deep integration with hospital IT systems and payer networks.
Bull thesis
Valuation: Shares are undervalued, supported by a $226.02 composite midpoint tightly aligned with the $223.25 internal valuation cross-checks.
§2 ベアケース
A combined scenario of PAMA reimbursement cuts and labor inflation tests the margin structure. The model withstands moderate pressure given scale efficiencies, but operating margins structurally compressing below 13.0% would invalidate the current valuation.
このテーゼが崩れる経路
Severe PAMA Reimbursement Reset
· Low
Aggressive legislative changes to PAMA cause unexpected, steep cuts to clinical lab fee schedules, significantly compressing gross margins.
FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-3 Years
Accelerated Hospital In-sourcing
· Medium
Technological advancements enable hospitals to profitably internalize testing, shrinking the addressable outsourced laboratory market.
Reverse DCF for DGX (DGX) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.
We compare the implied rate to our own forecast deceleration curve and to the historical five-year actual. When the implied rate exceeds the realistic ceiling, the price is pricing in optimism the business has not yet demonstrated.
Reverse DCF uses cost of equity (Ke), not WACC, to stay consistent with the EPS-based forward valuation models. Ke is derived from CAPM with adjusted beta; the strict and moderate variants are documented in the assumption ledger.
When the implied growth rate is below our forecast, the market is underpricing the business; when it is above, the market is overpricing. The reverse-DCF read is one of four lenses that feed the composite fair-value range and the rating band.
FAQ
DGX — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, DGX looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $190 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $226 (range $185–$268), which implies roughly 18.9% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for DGX is $185–$268, with a midpoint of $226. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for DGX's archetype.
Our current rating for DGX is Buy with a confidence score of 88/100. Buy. The current price does not fully reflect the company's structural free cash flow yield and defensive moats. The valuation synthesis, anchored by FCFF and Forward Earnings, justifies an $226.02 fair value. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for DGX are: Severe PAMA Reimbursement Reset; Accelerated Hospital In-sourcing; Margin Collapse from Labor Inflation. The single biggest risk is Risk: Regulatory pricing pressures remain the primary headwind, though offset by durable scale advantages.
Our current rating for DGX is Buy, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($185–$268) versus the current price of $190.
DGX is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for DGX.
