Emerson Electric Co. (EMR)
NYSE: EMR · Real-Time Price · USD
$141
+0.23 (+0.2%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: EMR rated Reduce
EMR is rated Reduce at $137.28 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $122.21, implying -10.98% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100.
Fair value (mid)
$122 / share
$88.7 – $156
Upside to FV
-11.0%
from $141
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Reduce-side internal valuation cross-checks ($164.87) aggressively prices in perfect execution of the M&A synergy playbook and permanent retention of 24.2% outlier margins.
Biggest risk
M&A Value Destruction
M&A Value Destruction: Failure to extract synergies from recent software acquisitions causes ROIC to stagnate below WACC, driven by the $18B goodwill burden.
Recommended action
Reduce
EMR is rated Reduce at $137.28 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $122.21, implying -10.98% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $76.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 18.3B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 2.4B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $4.33 | |
| Shares out | 560.1M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 32.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 19.2x | |
| Dividend | $2.22 (1.57%) | |
| Volume | 2,534,472 | |
| Beta | 1.25 | |
| Price target | $159 | +12.6% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Emerson Electric Co.EMR
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 18.3B
- Net income (ttm)
- 2.4B
- EPS (ttm)
- $4.33
- P/E (trailing)
- 32.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.2x
- Market cap
- $76.9B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-09-30 | 2023-09-30 | 2024-09-30 | 2025-09-30 | Trend |
| Revenue | $13.80B | $15.17B | $17.49B | $18.02B | +9.3% |
| Gross profit | $6.31B | $7.43B | $8.89B | $9.52B | +14.7% |
| Operating income | $2.36B | $2.76B | $2.67B | $3.53B | +14.4% |
| Net income | $3.23B | $13.22B | $1.97B | $2.29B | -10.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.41 | $22.88 | $3.43 | $4.04 | -9.3% |
| EBITDA | $3.50B | $4.22B | $4.03B | $4.84B | +11.4% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $3.61B | $4.19B | $5.14B | $5.10B | +12.2% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $88.7
- Fair value (mid)
- $122
- Fair value (high)
- $156
- Current price
- $141
- Upside to mid
- -11.0%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted earnings | $110 | 25% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $77.53 | 20% |
| Owner earnings | $203 | 20% |
| Forward earnings | $116 | 20% |
| FCFF DCF | $111 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $86.93 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $38.91 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$159
+12.6%
In the news
Latest news · EMR
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $76.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 32.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.2x
- P/S
- 4.3x
- P/B
- 3.9x
- PEG
- 2.03
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.6x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 52.7%
- Operating margin
- 24.5%
- ROE
- 12.3%
- ROA
- 6.7%
- ROIC
- 10.9%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.69
- Current ratio
- 0.87
- Quick ratio
- 0.59
Trading
- Beta
- 1.25
- Volume
- 2,534,472
- Dividend yield
- 1.6%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -10.9% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$155.92
+13.6% from spot
Emerson's high-margin software suites command durable pricing power. Accelerated reshoring and grid modernization drive organic revenue growth to high single-digits, pushing fair value to $155.92.
- Secular super-cycle in automation CAPEX.
- Operating margins expand past 24%.
- Terminal multiple premium holds.
Base60%
Price target
$122.21
-11.0% from spot
The company effectively executes its pure-play automation pivot. Software and service recurring revenues stabilize cyclicality, but massive M&A goodwill caps ROIC expansion, anchoring value at $122.21.
- Terminal growth rate of 3%.
- Terminal multiple of 20x.
- Normalized operating margins of 21%.
Bear20%
Price target
$88.69
-35.4% from spot
Industrial recession stalls spending. Newly acquired software fails to offset hardware cyclicality. The massive goodwill base drags ROIC, compressing multiples back to legacy industrial norms around $88.69.
- Operating margins revert to legacy norms.
- M&A integration fails to yield synergies.
- Multiples compress to 15-16x.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $122.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted earnings | 25% | $110 | -22.1% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 20% | $77.5 | -45.1% | |
| Owner earnings | 20% | $203 | +43.5% | |
| Forward earnings | 20% | $116 | -18.1% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $111 | -21.3% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $86.9 | -38.5% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $38.9 | -72.5% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $122 | -11.0% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $145 | $160 | $179 | $202 | $214 |
| 8.3% | $122 | $133 | $145 | $160 | $179 |
| 9.3% | $106 | $113 | $122 | $133 | $145 |
| 10.3% | $92.9 | $98.8 | $106 | $113 | $122 |
| 11.3% | $82.9 | $87.6 | $92.9 | $98.8 | $106 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet4.0
Profitability5.5
Revenue Growth4.5
Risk Assessment5.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency3.5
Weighted composite
5.8/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 4.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 3.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 87/100
Target weight
Underweight. The 87/100 confidence score reflects high structural transition noise between the legacy business and the new software-centric model.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$141
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim positions on strength toward the $137 current price, as it already prices in successful integration and sustained peak margins.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E19.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE12.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC10.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
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Market & fundamental data
Available fields
282
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 282 of 282 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on EMR
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this EMR report
What is the current EMR stock rating?
Emerson Electric Co. is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full EMR analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/EMR/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for EMR?
The latest report frames EMR around $89 to $156. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the EMR page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceEMR · Fair value $122-11.0% · Confidence 87/100