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GLW trades against a final fair-value range of $55.37-$82.37, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $55.4, high $82.4, with mid-point at $68.5.
Stock analysis

GLW fair value $55–$82

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-09次回更新: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature dividend
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株価
$186.94
▼ -118.39 (-63.33%)
公正価値
$69
$55–$82
評価
売り
confidence 88/100
上昇余地
-63.3%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$58.27
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$160.9B
P/E fwd 44.4
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Composite fair value $69 with high case $82.
  • Implied downside of 63.3% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature dividend.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$69
Margin of safety
-172.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$186.94Price
Low $55.37
Mid $68.55
High $82.37

GLW trades against a final fair-value range of $55.37-$82.37, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible assets in proprietary glass
    Intangible assets in proprietary glass formulations and materials science.
  • Switching costs in display and
    Switching costs in display and specialty electronics materials.
  • Bull thesis
    Near-term internal valuation cross-checks growth is strong, but insufficient to offset the monumental valuation premium.

§2 ベアケース

A synchronized global recession severely curtails consumer electronics spending and delays 5G/broadband infrastructure rollouts. High fixed costs result in significant margin compression.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Prolonged Telco Winter

· Medium

Carriers permanently reduce fiber capex due to shifting to wireless last-mile or structural funding issues.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
2-3 Years

Display Price War

· Medium

Asian competitors flood the market with heavily subsidized glass, collapsing LCD/OLED substrate pricing.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
1-2 Years

Disruptive Material Substitution

· Low

A new, cheaper composite replaces specialty glass in consumer devices, breaking Corning's monopoly.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
5+ Years
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Three consecutive quarters of declining optical fiber volume.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Display glass price declines exceeding high single-digits annually.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compressing below 30% for a full fiscal year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Capex to sales ratio climbing above 12% without corresponding revenue growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio exceeding 80% on normalized FCF.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期

項目2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高$14.19B$12.59B-11.3%$13.12B+4.2%$15.63B+19.1%+2.4%
売上総利益$4.51B$3.93B$4.28B$5.62B+5.7%
営業利益$1.44B$890.0M$1.14B$2.28B+12.2%
純利益$1.32B$581.0M-56.0%$506.0M-12.9%$1.60B+216.2%+4.9%
EPS (希薄化後)$1.28$1.54$0.68$0.58$1.83+9.3%
EBITDA$3.54B$2.51B$2.49B$3.74B+1.3%
研究開発$1.05B$1.08B$1.09B$1.11B+1.5%
販管費$1.90B$1.84B$1.93B$2.12B+2.8%

品質スコア

Piotroski F-スコア
7 / 9
0–9 品質コンポジット
Altman Zスコア
6.81
倒産リスク (>3 で安全)
Beneish Mスコア
-2.37
利益操作リスク
OCF / 純利益
1.69×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Pass
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
8.9%
投下資本利益率
個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

カバー対象の全ティッカーの完全なレポート
24か月分の評価アーカイブ
ウォッチリストブリーフィング + 評価変更アラート
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無料トライアルを開始
いつでもキャンセル可能。
CASH FLOW FAQ

GLW cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for GLW (GLW) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.
FAQ

GLW — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, GLW looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $187 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $68.5 (range $55.4–$82.4), which implies roughly 63.3% downside to the midpoint.
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