JNJ trades against a final fair-value range of $244.50-$419.09, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $245, high $419, with mid-point at $332.
Stock analysis
Johnson & JohnsonJNJ Johnson & Johnson fair value $332–$419
Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$332
Margin of safety
+32.9%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$222.51Price
FV $331.57
High $419.09
JNJ trades against a final fair-value range of $244.50-$419.09, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Intangible Assets
Extensive patent portfolio protecting high-margin immunology and oncology drugs.
Switching Costs
High switching costs in MedTech (surgical equipment, orthopedics) due to physician training.
Cycle upside
Aging global populations and rising chronic disease prevalence guarantee secular demand. Innovation cycles in oncology and robotics-assisted surgery drive premium pricing power.
§2 ベアケース
A severe stress test assumes complete loss of exclusivity on key blockbuster drugs without adequate pipeline replacement, compounded by a massive cash drain from talc litigation settlements. Operating margins compress to the low 20s, and the market violently re-rates the multiple to 12x, dropping the stock towards $150.
このテーゼが崩れる経路
Talc Litigation Catastrophe
· Low
Settlements and ongoing liabilities breach the ring-fenced strategy, draining >$15B in free cash flow and triggering credit downgrades.
FV impact
-$30/share
Stelara Biosimilar Collapse
· Medium
Biosimilar penetration accelerates faster than modeled, wiping out billions in high-margin revenue over 24 months with no pipeline offset.
FV impact
-$25/share
Regulatory Price Controls
· Medium
Aggressive legislative action imposes strict price caps on top oncology/immunology assets, structurally impairing mature ROIC and terminal margins.
FV impact
-$40/share
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標
現在
トリガーしきい値
Free cash flow conversion dropping below 85%.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential declines in MedTech organic growth.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Adverse rulings in ongoing talc mass tort litigation.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
R&D yield deteriorating (fewer late-stage pipeline approvals per $1B spent).
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins sustained below 25%.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
§3 財務履歴
損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目
T−0
T−1
T−2
T−3
CAGR
期間
2022-12-31
2023-12-31
2024-12-31
2025-12-31
Trend
売上高
$79.99B
$85.16B
$88.82B
$94.19B
+5.6%
売上総利益
$55.39B
$58.61B
$61.35B
$63.94B
+4.9%
営業利益
$21.01B
$22.01B
$21.25B
$25.60B
+6.8%
純利益
$17.94B
$35.15B
$14.07B
$26.80B
+14.3%
EPS (希薄化後)
$6.73
$13.72
$5.79
$11.03
+17.9%
EBITDA
$26.61B
$23.32B
$24.78B
$41.06B
+15.6%
研究開発
$14.14B
$15.09B
$17.23B
$14.67B
+1.2%
販管費
$20.25B
$21.51B
$22.87B
$23.68B
+5.4%
品質スコア
Piotroski F-スコア
3 / 9
0–9 品質コンポジット
Altman Zスコア
4.9
倒産リスク (>3 で安全)
Beneish Mスコア
-2.26
利益操作リスク
OCF / 純利益
0.92×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Pass
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
20.5%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3
Numbers analysis
キャッシュフロー
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCF / net income, accounting-quality, and ROIC rows above.
資本配分
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加
完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。
Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.
Based on our latest independent analysis, JNJ looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $223 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $332 (range $245–$419), which implies roughly 49.0% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for JNJ is $245–$419, with a midpoint of $332. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for Johnson & Johnson's archetype.
Our current rating for JNJ is Strong Buy with a confidence score of 88/100. JNJ is rated Strong Buy at $222.51 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $331.57, implying +49.01% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is independent research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for Johnson & Johnson are: Talc Litigation Catastrophe; Stelara Biosimilar Collapse; Regulatory Price Controls. The single biggest risk is Talc Litigation Catastrophe: Settlements and ongoing liabilities breach the ring-fenced strategy, draining >$15B in free cash flow and triggering credit downgrades.
Our current rating for JNJ is Strong Buy, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($245–$419) versus the current price of $223.
Johnson & Johnson is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for JNJ.
