Newmont Corporation (NEM)
NYSE: NEM · Real-Time Price · USD
$117
+3.02 (+2.7%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: NEM rated Strong Buy
NEM is rated Strong Buy at $116.51 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $181.20, implying +55.52% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$181 / share
$134 – $242
Upside to FV
+55.5%
from $117
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Persistent macroeconomic uncertainty keeps gold prices high. Management successfully controls inflation impacts on AISC, allowing sustained outsized free cash flow generation and accretive capital allocation.
Biggest risk
Gold Price Collapse
Gold Price Collapse: Macroeconomic shift drives gold prices down significantly, wiping out the current peak margin profile.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
NEM is rated Strong Buy at $116.51 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $181.20, implying +55.52% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $124.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 25B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 8.5B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $7.69 | |
| Shares out | 1.1B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 15.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 10.3x | |
| Dividend | $1.04 (0.89%) | |
| Volume | 5,292,487 | |
| Beta | 0.45 | |
| Price target | $122 | +4.8% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 25B
- Net income (ttm)
- 8.5B
- EPS (ttm)
- $7.69
- P/E (trailing)
- 15.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 10.3x
- Market cap
- $124.4B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $11.92B | $11.81B | $18.68B | $22.67B | +23.9% |
| Gross profit | $3.26B | $3.01B | $7.14B | $12.06B | +54.6% |
| Operating income | $1.61B | $708.0M | $5.91B | $11.02B | +90.1% |
| Net income | $-429.0M | $-2.49B | $3.35B | $7.09B | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-0.54 | $-2.94 | $2.92 | $6.39 | — |
| EBITDA | $2.36B | $320.0M | $7.53B | $14.09B | +81.4% |
| R&D | $229.0M | $200.0M | $197.0M | $166.0M | -10.2% |
| SG&A | $276.0M | $299.0M | $442.0M | $382.0M | +11.4% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $134
- Fair value (mid)
- $181
- Fair value (high)
- $242
- Current price
- $117
- Upside to mid
- +55.5%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $160 | 55% |
| FCFF DCF | $200 | 35% |
| Owner earnings | $234 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$122
+4.8%
In the news
Latest news · NEM
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $124.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 15.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 10.3x
- P/S
- 5.0x
- P/B
- 3.6x
- PEG
- 0.35
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 67.4%
- Operating margin
- 54.0%
- ROE
- 25.8%
- ROA
- 14.9%
- ROIC
- 26.2%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.16
- Current ratio
- 2.44
- Quick ratio
- 1.89
Trading
- Beta
- 0.45
- Volume
- 5,292,487
- Dividend yield
- 0.9%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +49.2% expected return to fair value
Bull15%
Price target
$241.74
+107.5% from spot
Persistent macroeconomic uncertainty keeps gold prices high. Management successfully controls inflation impacts on AISC, allowing sustained outsized free cash flow generation and accretive capital allocation.
- Gold prices remain structurally elevated.
- Operating margins sustain near peak levels.
Base50%
Price target
$181.20
+55.5% from spot
Commodity prices and margins undergo a measured mean reversion. The company continues to generate solid cash flows, though below current peak levels, bridging the gap between trailing performance and forward internal valuation cross-checks.
- Gradual cyclical normalization of gold prices.
- Operating margins revert to industry average (~40%).
Bear35%
Price target
$134.25
+15.2% from spot
A rapid reversion in gold prices coupled with sticky operational costs severely compresses margins. High sustaining capital requirements put heavy pressure on free cash flow, driving valuation toward the floor.
- Sharp decline in realized gold prices.
- Persistent cost inflation squeezes margins.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $181.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 55% | $160 | +37.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 35% | $200 | +71.6% | |
| Owner earnings | 10% | $234 | +101.2% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $181 | +55.5% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.6% | $231 | $268 | $317 | $317 | $317 |
| 5.6% | $181 | $203 | $231 | $268 | $317 |
| 6.6% | $149 | $164 | $181 | $203 | $231 |
| 7.6% | $126 | $137 | $149 | $164 | $181 |
| 8.6% | $110 | $118 | $126 | $137 | $149 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation9.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet8.5
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment9.0
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
8.2/10
High quality| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Standard cyclical allocation. Given the high volatility and cyclical peak nature, avoid outsized weighting despite the strong valuation upside.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$117
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure if spot gold prices break structural technical supports or if AISC margin compression accelerates unexpectedly.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E10.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE25.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC26.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All NEM indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
282
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 282 of 282 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on NEM
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this NEM report
What is the current NEM stock rating?
Newmont Corporation is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full NEM analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/NEM/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for NEM?
The latest report frames NEM around $134 to $242. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the NEM page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyNEM · Fair value $181+55.5% · Confidence 88/100