Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)
NASDAQ: STX · Real-Time Price · USD
$783
+16.17 (+2.1%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: STX rated Sell
Sell. Massive overvaluation driven by cyclical momentum completely masks underlying fundamental weakness and capital constraints.
Fair value (mid)
$234 / share
$164 – $359
Upside to FV
-69.5%
from $783
Confidence
62/100
Moat
3/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: AI infrastructure expansion structurally extends the storage upgrade cycle, sustaining high margins and materially delaying SSD substitution.
Biggest risk
Accelerated SSD Substitution
Accelerated SSD Substitution: NAND oversupply permanently crushes SSD pricing, making HDDs obsolete for nearline enterprise workloads.
Recommended action
Sell
Sell. The market has incorrectly capitalized peak cyclical earnings into perpetuity, aggressively ignoring severe structural threats and capital intensity.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $171.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 11B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 2.4B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $10.6 | |
| Shares out | 224.2M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 74.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 29.2x | |
| Dividend | $2.96 (0.38%) | |
| Volume | 4,872,506 | |
| Beta | 2.01 | |
| Price target | $610 | -22.0% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Seagate Technology Holdings plcSTX
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 11B
- Net income (ttm)
- 2.4B
- EPS (ttm)
- $10.6
- P/E (trailing)
- 74.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 29.2x
- Market cap
- $171.9B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-06-30 | 2022-06-30 | 2023-06-30 | 2024-06-30 | 2025-06-30 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $11.66B | $7.38B | $6.55B | $9.10B | -6.0% |
| Gross profit | — | $3.47B | $1.35B | $1.54B | $3.20B | -2.0% |
| Operating income | — | $1.96B | $60.0M | $422.0M | $1.92B | -0.6% |
| Net income | — | $1.65B | $-529.0M | $335.0M | $1.47B | -2.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.36 | $7.36 | $-2.56 | $1.58 | — | -26.3% |
| EBITDA | — | $2.38B | $330.0M | $1.04B | $2.09B | -3.2% |
| R&D | — | $941.0M | $797.0M | $654.0M | $724.0M | -6.3% |
| SG&A | — | $559.0M | $491.0M | $460.0M | $561.0M | +0.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $164
- Fair value (mid)
- $234
- Fair value (high)
- $359
- Current price
- $783
- Upside to mid
- -69.5%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | $137 | 50% |
| Forward earnings | $402 | 30% |
| Owner earnings | $223 | 20% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $572 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $221 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $295 | 0% |
| Ddm | $32.04 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$610
-22.0%
In the news
Latest news · STX
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $171.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 74.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 29.2x
- P/S
- 15.9x
- P/B
- 160.4x
- PEG
- 0.53
- EV / EBITDA
- 50.8x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 41.6%
- Operating margin
- 29.5%
- ROE
- 1788.0%
- ROA
- 24.7%
- ROIC
- 69.1%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 3.82
- Current ratio
- 1.33
- Quick ratio
- 0.77
Trading
- Beta
- 2.01
- Volume
- 4,872,506
- Dividend yield
- 0.4%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -69.5% expected return to fair value
Bull10%
Price target
$358.66
-53.2% from spot
AI infrastructure expansion structurally extends the storage upgrade cycle, sustaining high margins and materially delaying SSD substitution.
- Terminal growth holds near 2% indefinitely.
- Operating margins permanently expand to 25%.
Base40%
Price target
$233.59
-69.5% from spot
Near-term cyclical restocking fades into historical hardware decay rates. Cash flow stabilizes but fails to support massive current equity multiples.
- Revenues taper from 34% growth down to 1-2%.
- Normalized operating margin settles at 21%.
Bear50%
Price target
$163.58
-78.7% from spot
Current demand proves to be a fleeting inventory rebuild. Heavy debt burdens and structural obsolescence severely impair terminal equity value.
- Revenues compress sharply after initial restock.
- SSD cannibalization accelerates long-term margin decay.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $234.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCFF DCF | 50% | $137 | -82.5% | |
| Forward earnings | 30% | $402 | -48.6% | |
| Owner earnings | 20% | $223 | -71.6% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $572 | -27.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $221 | -71.7% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $295 | -62.4% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $32.0 | -95.9% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $234 | -69.5% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 12.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.3% | $267 | $288 | $311 | $340 | $374 |
| 18.3% | $234 | $249 | $267 | $288 | $311 |
| 19.3% | $208 | $220 | $234 | $249 | $267 |
| 20.3% | $187 | $197 | $208 | $220 | $234 |
| 21.3% | $170 | $178 | $187 | $197 | $208 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet3.5
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment3.0
Competitive Moat3.0
Earnings Quality6.5
Capital Efficiency8.5
Weighted composite
5.9/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 8.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 62/100
Target weight
Maximum 2% portfolio weight for short positions given extreme recent volatility and momentum squeeze risks.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$783
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Cover immediately if enterprise SSD prices spike structurally or if target downside fair value near $163 is achieved.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E29.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE1,788
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC69.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All STX indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
281
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 281 of 281 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on STX
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this STX report
What is the current STX stock rating?
Seagate Technology Holdings plc is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full STX analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/STX/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for STX?
The latest report frames STX around $164 to $359. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the STX page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellSTX · Fair value $234-69.5% · Confidence 62/100