Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)
NASDAQ: TXN · Real-Time Price · USD
$288
+2.57 (+0.9%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: TXN rated Sell
TXN is rated Sell at $287.80 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $152.73, implying -46.93% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100.
Fair value (mid)
$153 / share
$99.8 – $207
Upside to FV
-46.9%
from $288
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Quantitative: Extreme overvaluation; the stock trades at a massive 45% premium to deterministic fair value.
Biggest risk
Fab execution failure
Contrarian: While it is a high-quality mature dividend payer, the current price demands an impossible structural growth rate.
Recommended action
Sell
TXN is rated Sell at $287.80 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $152.73, implying -46.93% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 87/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $261.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 18.4B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 5.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $5.85 | |
| Shares out | 910.1M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 49.2x | |
| P/E (forward) | 31.3x | |
| Dividend | $5.68 (1.97%) | |
| Volume | 8,880,798 | |
| Beta | 1.30 | |
| Price target | $265 | -7.8% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Texas Instruments IncorporatedTXN
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 18.4B
- Net income (ttm)
- 5.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $5.85
- P/E (trailing)
- 49.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 31.3x
- Market cap
- $261.9B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $20.03B | $17.52B | $15.64B | $17.68B | -4.1% |
| Gross profit | $13.77B | $11.02B | $9.09B | $10.08B | -9.9% |
| Operating income | $10.40B | $7.33B | $5.34B | $6.14B | -16.1% |
| Net income | $8.75B | $6.51B | $4.80B | $5.00B | -17.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | $9.41 | $7.07 | $5.20 | $5.45 | -16.6% |
| EBITDA | $11.23B | $9.01B | $7.54B | $8.25B | -9.7% |
| R&D | $1.67B | $1.86B | $1.96B | $2.08B | +7.6% |
| SG&A | $1.70B | $1.83B | $1.79B | $1.86B | +3.0% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $99.8
- Fair value (mid)
- $153
- Fair value (high)
- $207
- Current price
- $288
- Upside to mid
- -46.9%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $155 | 40% |
| Owner earnings | $206 | 25% |
| FCFF DCF | $106 | 15% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $124 | 10% |
| Discounted earnings | $135 | 5% |
| Ddm | $83.42 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $58.79 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$265
-7.8%
In the news
Latest news · TXN
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $261.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 49.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 31.3x
- P/S
- 14.2x
- P/B
- 15.6x
- PEG
- 1.67
- EV / EBITDA
- 31.3x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 57.3%
- Operating margin
- 36.0%
- ROE
- 32.3%
- ROA
- 12.2%
- ROIC
- 22.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.84
- Current ratio
- 4.46
- Quick ratio
- 2.83
Trading
- Beta
- 1.30
- Volume
- 8,880,798
- Dividend yield
- 2.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -46.1% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$206.88
-28.1% from spot
The 300mm fab buildout completes precisely on schedule, yielding massive unit cost advantages. Strong secular tailwinds drive stronger-than-expected analog demand, accelerating revenue growth and triggering rapid free cash flow margin expansion as capital intensity falls.
- Flawless 300mm fab execution
- Rapid auto/industrial cyclical recovery
- Terminal growth accelerates
Base60%
Price target
$152.73
-46.9% from spot
Capital investments slowly moderate as the new facilities come online. Operating margins stabilize around 36%. The market eventually realizes its error and reprices the stock from a speculative >20% implied growth rate down to realistic mature dividend expectations.
- Normalizing capital expenditures
- Stable mid-single digit terminal growth
- Operating margins stabilize near 36%
Bear20%
Price target
$99.78
-65.3% from spot
Prolonged cyclical downturns in industrial and automotive markets combined with exceptionally high fixed costs severely pressure gross margins. Elevated capital intensity remains higher for longer, punishing free cash flow and directly threatening the pace of dividend growth.
- Prolonged macroeconomic downturn
- Higher-for-longer capital expenditures
- Gross margin deterioration
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $153.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 40% | $155 | -46.1% | |
| Owner earnings | 25% | $206 | -28.5% | |
| FCFF DCF | 15% | $106 | -63.1% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 10% | $124 | -56.9% | |
| Discounted earnings | 5% | $135 | -53.0% | |
| Ddm | 5% | $83.4 | -71.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $58.8 | -79.6% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $153 | -46.9% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $176 | $191 | $208 | $229 | $254 |
| 9.0% | $153 | $164 | $176 | $191 | $208 |
| 10.0% | $135 | $143 | $153 | $164 | $176 |
| 11.0% | $121 | $127 | $135 | $143 | $153 |
| 12.0% | $109 | $115 | $121 | $127 | $135 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet6.5
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment7.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency6.0
Weighted composite
7.3/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 87/100
Target weight
Avoid long exposure entirely. Highly attractive short candidate for relative value sector pairings.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$288
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Cover short positions near our base fair value of $150-$160, or immediately if unadjusted gross margins unexpectedly spike above 65%.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E31.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE32.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC22.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All TXN indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
285
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 285 of 285 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on TXN
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this TXN report
What is the current TXN stock rating?
Texas Instruments Incorporated is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full TXN analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/TXN/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for TXN?
The latest report frames TXN around $100 to $207. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the TXN page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellTXN · Fair value $153-46.9% · Confidence 87/100