Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX)
NASDAQ: VRTX · Real-Time Price · USD
$430
+4.80 (+1.1%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: VRTX rated Strong Buy
Strong Buy. Robust 33.65% upside to $574.46 fair value, supported by extended duration of the CF monopoly and massive free cash flow generation, adequately mitigating pipeline execution risks.
Fair value (mid)
$574 / share
$428 – $722
Upside to FV
+33.6%
from $430
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Rapid adoption of CASGEVY and successful Phase 3 outcomes in pain management diversify revenue streams and reaccelerate top-line growth, driving multiple expansion.
Biggest risk
CASGEVY Launch Stalls
CASGEVY Launch Stalls: Severe underperformance in commercial scaling of CASGEVY due to treatment center bottlenecks or reimbursement pushback, impairing growth.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
Strong Buy. Vertex offers highly visible base cash flows from its CF monopoly combined with compelling optionality from its non-opioid pain and gene-editing pipelines.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $109.1B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 12.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 4.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $16.9 | |
| Shares out | 253.8M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 25.5x | |
| P/E (forward) | 19.9x | |
| Volume | 953,323 | |
| Beta | 0.30 | |
| Price target | $541 | +25.9% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 12.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- 4.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $16.9
- P/E (trailing)
- 25.5x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.9x
- Market cap
- $109.1B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $8.93B | $9.87B | $11.02B | $12.00B | +10.4% |
| Gross profit | $7.85B | $8.61B | $9.49B | $10.35B | +9.7% |
| Operating income | $4.25B | $3.78B | $-233.4M | $4.55B | +2.3% |
| Net income | $3.32B | $3.62B | $-535.6M | $3.95B | +6.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | $12.82 | $13.89 | $-2.08 | $15.32 | +6.1% |
| EBITDA | $4.44B | $4.61B | $486.3M | $4.87B | +3.1% |
| R&D | $2.66B | $3.69B | $8.26B | $4.04B | +15.0% |
| SG&A | $944.7M | $1.14B | $1.46B | $1.75B | +22.9% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $428
- Fair value (mid)
- $574
- Fair value (high)
- $722
- Current price
- $430
- Upside to mid
- +33.6%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $624 | 30% |
| Discounted earnings | $781 | 20% |
| Owner earnings | $494 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $526 | 15% |
| Forward earnings | $446 | 15% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $221 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$541
+25.9%
In the news
Latest news · VRTX
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $109.1B
- P/E (trailing)
- 25.5x
- P/E (forward)
- 19.9x
- P/S
- 8.9x
- P/B
- 5.6x
- PEG
- 1.63
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.7x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 54.4%
- Operating margin
- 39.2%
- ROE
- 24.2%
- ROA
- 12.1%
- ROIC
- 28.6%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.10
- Current ratio
- 3.02
- Quick ratio
- 2.38
Trading
- Beta
- 0.30
- Volume
- 953,323
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +33.7% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$721.50
+67.9% from spot
Rapid adoption of CASGEVY and successful Phase 3 outcomes in pain management diversify revenue streams and reaccelerate top-line growth, driving multiple expansion.
- Terminal multiple > 20x
- Operating margin > 40%
- Terminal growth > 3%
Base60%
Price target
$574.46
+33.7% from spot
Vertex maintains its CF monopoly while steadily scaling CASGEVY and securing approval for its pain portfolio. Margins hold flat at 38% and revenue fades to 5% mid-term.
- Terminal multiple at 20x
- Operating margin at 38%
- Revenue growth fades from 9.54% to 5.0%
Bear20%
Price target
$428.44
-0.3% from spot
Clinical trial setbacks in non-CF pipeline assets or slower-than-expected commercial uptake leave the company overly reliant on a maturing cystic fibrosis market, leading to multiple compression.
- Terminal multiple compresses
- CASGEVY launch stalls
- R&D ROI diminishes
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $574.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $624 | +45.3% | |
| Discounted earnings | 20% | $781 | +81.6% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $494 | +15.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 15% | $526 | +22.5% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $446 | +3.7% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $221 | -48.6% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $574 | +33.6% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | $769 | $926 | $1005 | $1005 | $1005 |
| 6.0% | $574 | $658 | $769 | $926 | $1005 |
| 7.0% | $458 | $510 | $574 | $658 | $769 |
| 8.0% | $381 | $416 | $458 | $510 | $574 |
| 9.0% | $326 | $352 | $381 | $416 | $458 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet8.5
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment9.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
7.5/10
High quality| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core holding sizing appropriate for a mature quality compounder, scaled to conviction around pipeline delivery.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$430
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure if intrinsic models hit the upper bound ($721.50) or if key non-CF pipeline assets suffer terminal clinical failures.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E19.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE24.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC28.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All VRTX indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
270
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 270 of 270 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on VRTX
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this VRTX report
What is the current VRTX stock rating?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full VRTX analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/VRTX/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for VRTX?
The latest report frames VRTX around $428 to $722. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the VRTX page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyVRTX · Fair value $574+33.6% · Confidence 88/100