Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
NASDAQ: AMAT · Real-Time Price · USD
$435
+24.80 (+6.0%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: AMAT rated Sell
Sell. Market exuberance ignores cyclical capex drags and inevitable multiple normalization.
Fair value (mid)
$249 / share
$175 – $324
Upside to FV
-42.9%
from $435
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: The AI-driven supercycle extends, justifying a premium multiple and mitigating cyclical capex drags. Revenue compounds at >15%.
Biggest risk
Prolonged WFE Downturn
Prolonged WFE Downturn: A severe and protracted cyclical downturn in wafer fabrication equipment spending driven by macro weakness structurally impairs revenue growth.
Recommended action
Sell
Sell. Composite fair value is $248.66. Downside risk (-43%) severely outweighs the speculative momentum holding the stock at current levels.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $345.5B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 28.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 7.8B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $9.76 | |
| Shares out | 793.6M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 44.6x | |
| P/E (forward) | 30.9x | |
| Dividend | $2.12 (0.49%) | |
| Volume | 8,164,912 | |
| Beta | 1.65 | |
| Price target | $358 | -17.8% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Applied Materials, Inc.AMAT
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 28.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- 7.8B
- EPS (ttm)
- $9.76
- P/E (trailing)
- 44.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 30.9x
- Market cap
- $345.5B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-10-31 | 2023-10-31 | 2024-10-31 | 2025-10-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $25.79B | $26.52B | $27.18B | $28.37B | +3.2% |
| Gross profit | $11.99B | $12.38B | $12.90B | $13.81B | +4.8% |
| Operating income | $7.78B | $7.65B | $7.87B | $8.47B | +2.9% |
| Net income | $6.53B | $6.86B | $7.18B | $7.00B | +2.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $7.44 | $8.11 | $8.61 | $8.66 | +5.2% |
| EBITDA | $8.27B | $8.47B | $8.79B | $9.98B | +6.4% |
| R&D | $2.77B | $3.10B | $3.23B | $3.57B | +8.8% |
| SG&A | $1.44B | $1.63B | $1.80B | $1.77B | +7.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $175
- Fair value (mid)
- $249
- Fair value (high)
- $324
- Current price
- $435
- Upside to mid
- -42.9%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $228 | 35% |
| Owner earnings | $271 | 20% |
| Forward earnings | $314 | 25% |
| Discounted earnings | $157 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $255 | 5% |
| FCFF DCF | $155 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$358
-17.8%
In the news
Latest news · AMAT
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $345.5B
- P/E (trailing)
- 44.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 30.9x
- P/S
- 12.2x
- P/B
- 15.9x
- PEG
- 2.12
- EV / EBITDA
- 38.7x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 48.7%
- Operating margin
- 29.9%
- ROE
- 38.9%
- ROA
- 14.8%
- ROIC
- 35.5%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.33
- Current ratio
- 2.71
- Quick ratio
- 1.74
Trading
- Beta
- 1.65
- Volume
- 8,164,912
- Dividend yield
- 0.5%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -43.8% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$324.43
-25.5% from spot
The AI-driven supercycle extends, justifying a premium multiple and mitigating cyclical capex drags. Revenue compounds at >15%.
- Terminal multiple 25x.
- Operating margins expand to 32%.
Base60%
Price target
$248.66
-42.9% from spot
Mean-reversion in multiples and market acknowledgment of the capex burden pull the valuation down to fundamental intrinsic value.
- Terminal multiple 22x.
- Operating margins flatline at 29.8%.
Bear20%
Price target
$175.08
-59.8% from spot
Protracted cyclical downturns and China export restrictions structurally impair growth, driving a severe derating.
- Terminal multiple 15x.
- Severe WFE cyclical downturn.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $249.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $228 | -47.6% | |
| Owner earnings | 20% | $271 | -37.8% | |
| Forward earnings | 25% | $314 | -27.9% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $157 | -64.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $255 | -41.4% | |
| FCFF DCF | 5% | $155 | -64.3% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $249 | -42.9% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.1% | $282 | $301 | $322 | $347 | $375 |
| 11.1% | $251 | $266 | $282 | $301 | $322 |
| 12.1% | $226 | $238 | $251 | $266 | $282 |
| 13.1% | $206 | $216 | $226 | $238 | $251 |
| 14.1% | $189 | $197 | $206 | $216 | $226 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet7.5
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth2.5
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency6.0
Weighted composite
6.5/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 2.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 87/100
Target weight
Zero weight. The stock screens as a compelling source of funds or tactical short.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$435
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Exit existing long positions immediately given the 41% premium to fair value.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E30.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE38.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC35.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All AMAT indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
286
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 286 of 286 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on AMAT
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this AMAT report
What is the current AMAT stock rating?
Applied Materials, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full AMAT analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/AMAT/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for AMAT?
The latest report frames AMAT around $175 to $324. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the AMAT page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellAMAT · Fair value $249-42.9% · Confidence 87/100