Citigroup Inc. (C)
NYSE: C · Real-Time Price · USD
$126
-3.54 (-2.7%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: C rated Sell
Sell. The current market price prices in a flawless turnaround, ignoring persistent structural ROE deficits and operational complexity.
Fair value (mid)
$87.0 / share
$53.5 – $116
Upside to FV
-33.2%
from $126
Confidence
73/100
Moat
3/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Successful divestitures and cost-cutting initiatives close the ROE gap with peers, leading to a multiple re-rating and consistent double-digit EPS growth, supporting the $116.03 valuation.
Biggest risk
Turnaround stagnation
Turnaround stagnation: Management fails to execute planned divestitures, leaving ROE below cost of equity indefinitely.
Recommended action
Sell
Sell. Citigroup offers an unattractive risk/reward at $130.24. The current valuation embeds turnaround success while ignoring structural ROE deficits, leaving a -33% gap to our $87.05 fair value.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $227.8B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 78.7B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 14.7B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $8.04 | |
| Shares out | 1.7B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 15.6x | |
| P/E (forward) | 10.5x | |
| Dividend | $2.40 (1.91%) | |
| Volume | 17,505,539 | |
| Beta | 1.12 | |
| Price target | $137 | +9.2% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Citigroup Inc.C
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 78.7B
- Net income (ttm)
- 14.7B
- EPS (ttm)
- $8.04
- P/E (trailing)
- 15.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 10.5x
- Market cap
- $227.8B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $71.89B | $74.48B | $78.09B | $80.67B | $85.21B | +4.3% |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $21.95B | $14.85B | $9.23B | $12.68B | $14.31B | -10.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $7.00 | $4.04 | $5.94 | $6.99 | -0.0% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $26.74B | $28.31B | $30.71B | $29.75B | $30.82B | +3.6% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $53.5
- Fair value (mid)
- $87.0
- Fair value (high)
- $116
- Current price
- $126
- Upside to mid
- -33.2%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $106 | 55% |
| Residual income | $69.18 | 35% |
| Ddm | $44.80 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| FCFF DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $190 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $155 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $269 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $27.12 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$137
+9.2%
In the news
Latest news · C
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $227.8B
- P/E (trailing)
- 15.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 10.5x
- P/S
- 2.7x
- P/B
- 1.1x
- PEG
- 0.48
Profitability
- Operating margin
- 28.7%
- ROE
- 7.6%
- ROA
- 0.6%
Trading
- Beta
- 1.12
- Volume
- 17,505,539
- Dividend yield
- 1.9%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -33.2% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$116.03
-10.9% from spot
Successful divestitures and cost-cutting initiatives close the ROE gap with peers, leading to a multiple re-rating and consistent double-digit EPS growth, supporting the $116.03 valuation.
- Flawless divestiture execution
- Double-digit EPS growth
- Re-rating toward 1.0x book value
Base55%
Price target
$87.05
-33.2% from spot
Management executes some simplifications but entrenched complexities keep ROE below cost of capital, anchoring fair value at $87.05 against heavily optimistic internal valuation cross-checks expectations.
- Partial restructuring success
- Sub-WACC terminal ROE
- Slow margin improvement
Bear25%
Price target
$53.48
-58.9% from spot
Entrenched operational complexities, regulatory hurdles, or a global macro downturn stifle the turnaround, leaving ROE stubbornly low and trapping the stock at a heavily discounted $53.48 valuation.
- Turnaround failure
- Macroeconomic contraction
- Elevated credit losses
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $87.0.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 55% | $106 | -15.5% | |
| Residual income | 35% | $69.2 | -44.9% | |
| Ddm | 10% | $44.8 | -64.3% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $190 | +51.6% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $155 | +23.2% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $269 | +114.2% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $27.1 | -78.4% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $87.0 | -33.2% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $104 | $115 | $129 | $146 | $152 |
| 7.7% | $87.0 | $94.7 | $104 | $115 | $129 |
| 8.7% | $74.9 | $80.5 | $87.0 | $94.7 | $104 |
| 9.7% | $65.8 | $70.0 | $74.9 | $80.5 | $87.0 |
| 10.7% | $58.6 | $62.0 | $65.8 | $70.0 | $74.9 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management5.1
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability5.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat3.0
Earnings Quality4.5
Capital Efficiency4.0
Weighted composite
5.1/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.1 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 4.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 73/100
Target weight
Given the 33% downside to our $87.05 fair value estimate, avoid long exposure. Maintain a zero or short position until valuation aligns with intrinsic risks.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$126
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Cover short positions if management demonstrates two consecutive quarters of outsized structural expense reduction leading to ROTCE outperformance.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E10.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE7.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROICn/a
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All C indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
226
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 226 of 226 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on C
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this C report
What is the current C stock rating?
Citigroup Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full C analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/C/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for C?
The latest report frames C around $53 to $116. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the C page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellC · Fair value $87.0-33.2% · Confidence 73/100