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Intuitive Surgical maintains a dominant, near-monopoly position in soft-tissue robotic surgery. Its massive installed base of da Vinci systems creates a razor-and-blade model with high switching costs, generating robust recurring revenues from instruments and accessories. Strong free cash flow generation and high ROIC solidify its status as a premier quality compounder. Fair value range: low $176, high $337, with mid-point at $255.
Stock analysis

ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc. fair value $255–$337

ISRG
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
분석일: 2026-05-09다음 업데이트: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNASDAQ · Health Care
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주가
$450.06
▼ -195.39 (-43.41%)
공정 가치
$255
$255–$337
등급
매도
confidence 87/100
상승 여력
-43.4%
upside to fair value
안전 마진
$216.47
buy below · 15%
시가총액
$159.4B
P/E fwd 38.2
영어 원본으로 대체KO
번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중
이 리포트는 아직 번역되지 않았습니다. 번역 대기열이 따라잡으면 몇 분 후에 새로고침하세요.

§1 개요

  • Premium quality compounder with a wide competitive moat.
  • Reverse DCF implies ~20% perpetual growth required at current $450 price.
  • Intrinsic valuation models anchor at $254.67, signaling a massive premium.
  • Sell recommendation driven by extreme valuation disconnect, not business quality.
Fair value
$255
Margin of safety
-76.7%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$450.06Price
FV $254.67
High $336.56

Intuitive Surgical maintains a dominant, near-monopoly position in soft-tissue robotic surgery. Its massive installed base of da Vinci systems creates a razor-and-blade model with high switching costs, generating robust recurring revenues from instruments and accessories. Strong free cash flow generation and high ROIC solidify its status as a premier quality compounder.

  • Massive installed base of da
    Massive installed base of da Vinci systems
  • High switching costs for hospitals
    High switching costs for hospitals and surgeons
  • Cycle upside
    Post-pandemic procedure backlog clearance drives elevated system utilization and instrument consumption.

§2 베어 케이스

A severe hospital capexCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). freeze combined with accelerated placements of competing systems like Medtronic's Hugo compresses margins and slows new system placements significantly.

이 논제가 무너지는 경로

Medtronic/J&J Capture 30% Market Share

· Low

Competitors successfully disrupt the monopoly, forcing severe pricing pressure on systems and instruments.

FV impact
Downside below $175
Trigger
2-3 Years

Severe Hospital Capex Freeze

· Medium

Macro-driven hospital budget cuts drastically slow new system placements and upgrade cycles globally.

FV impact
Downside to $190
Trigger
1-2 Years

New Modality Disruption

· Low

Emergence of non-robotic, highly effective minimally invasive alternatives permanently reduces TAM for da Vinci.

FV impact
Downside to $160
Trigger
5+ Years
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표현재트리거 임계값
Decline in da Vinci procedure volume growth below 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Compression of gross margins below 60%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
System placement growth turning negative YoYMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Competitor system FDA approvals with superior clinical dataMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant insider selling coupled with guidance cutsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 재무 이력

손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
기간2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
매출$6.22B$7.12B$8.35B$10.06B+17.4%
매출총이익$4.20B$4.73B$5.63B$6.64B+16.5%
영업이익$1.58B$1.77B$2.35B$2.95B+23.1%
순이익
EPS (희석)$3.65$5.03$6.42$7.87+29.2%
EBITDA$1.94B$2.22B$2.85B$3.62B+23.1%
R&D$879.0M$998.8M$1.15B$1.31B+14.3%
판관비$1.74B$1.96B$2.14B$2.39B+11.1%

품질 점수

Piotroski F-스코어
7 / 9
0–9 품질 종합
Altman Z-스코어
39.9
파산 위험 (>3 안전)
OCF / 순이익
1.06×
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Pass
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
13.0%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3

Numbers analysis

개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더

전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

모든 커버 종목에 대한 전체 보고서
24개월 등급 아카이브
관심 목록 브리핑 + 등급 변경 알림
모든 언어로 PDF + DOCX 내보내기
무료 체험 시작
언제든지 취소 가능.
FAQ

ISRG — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ISRG looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $450 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $255 (range $176–$337), which implies roughly 43.4% downside to the midpoint.
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