Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
NYSE: JNJ · Real-Time Price · USD
$221
-1.18 (-0.5%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: JNJ rated Strong Buy
JNJ is rated Strong Buy at $222.51 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $331.57, implying +49.01% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$332 / share
$245 – $419
Upside to FV
+49.0%
from $221
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Johnson & Johnson successfully bridges its impending patent cliffs with high-margin pipeline approvals. MedTech accelerates, and the market removes the litigation discount, rewarding the structural predictability with a premium multiple.
Biggest risk
Talc Litigation Catastrophe
Talc Litigation Catastrophe: Settlements and ongoing liabilities breach the ring-fenced strategy, draining >$15B in free cash flow and triggering credit downgrades.
Recommended action
Strong Buy
JNJ is rated Strong Buy at $222.51 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $331.57, implying +49.01% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $535.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 96.4B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 21B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $8.64 | |
| Shares out | 2.4B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 25.6x | |
| P/E (forward) | 17.5x | |
| Dividend | $5.36 (2.42%) | |
| Volume | 5,549,658 | |
| Beta | 0.26 | |
| Price target | $238 | +7.6% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Johnson & JohnsonJNJ
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 96.4B
- Net income (ttm)
- 21B
- EPS (ttm)
- $8.64
- P/E (trailing)
- 25.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 17.5x
- Market cap
- $535.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $79.99B | $85.16B | $88.82B | $94.19B | +5.6% |
| Gross profit | $55.39B | $58.61B | $61.35B | $63.94B | +4.9% |
| Operating income | $21.01B | $22.01B | $21.25B | $25.60B | +6.8% |
| Net income | $17.94B | $35.15B | $14.07B | $26.80B | +14.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.73 | $13.72 | $5.79 | $11.03 | +17.9% |
| EBITDA | $26.61B | $23.32B | $24.78B | $41.06B | +15.6% |
| R&D | $14.14B | $15.09B | $17.23B | $14.67B | +1.2% |
| SG&A | $20.25B | $21.51B | $22.87B | $23.68B | +5.4% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $245
- Fair value (mid)
- $332
- Fair value (high)
- $419
- Current price
- $221
- Upside to mid
- +49.0%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $325 | 30% |
| Forward earnings | $214 | 20% |
| Owner earnings | $414 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $440 | 15% |
| Discounted earnings | $512 | 10% |
| Ddm | $165 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $73.97 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$238
+7.6%
In the news
Latest news · JNJ
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $535.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 25.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 17.5x
- P/S
- 5.5x
- P/B
- 6.6x
- PEG
- 2.27
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.5x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 68.0%
- Operating margin
- 27.6%
- ROE
- 26.4%
- ROA
- 8.4%
- ROIC
- 13.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.68
- Current ratio
- 1.03
- Quick ratio
- 0.69
Trading
- Beta
- 0.26
- Volume
- 5,549,658
- Dividend yield
- 2.4%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +54.7% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$419.09
+88.3% from spot
Johnson & Johnson successfully bridges its impending patent cliffs with high-margin pipeline approvals. MedTech accelerates, and the market removes the litigation discount, rewarding the structural predictability with a premium multiple.
- Successful pipeline execution offsets patent cliffs entirely.
- MedTech market share expands rapidly.
- Litigation overhang resolves favorably without severe cash drain.
- Terminal multiple re-rates above 20x.
Base60%
Price target
$331.57
+49.0% from spot
The core business continues to compound steadily. Cash flow models look past near-term litigation and generic erosion, correctly valuing the mature ROIC profile and durable competitive advantages.
- Revenue grows at 5-7% decelerating to 3% terminal.
- Operating margins normalize at 27.5%.
- Terminal P/E holds steady at 17.5x.
- Moderate litigation settlement absorbed by FCF.
Bear20%
Price target
$244.50
+9.9% from spot
Generic erosion outpaces pipeline delivery, and regulatory pressure prevents price hikes. Continued legal overhang forces a sustained multiple discount, though the dividend and baseline FCF provide a hard floor around $244.
- Biosimilar competition erodes sales faster than expected.
- Regulatory pricing pressure squeezes margins to low 20s.
- Litigation costs escalate beyond reserves.
- Multiple compresses to 14x.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $332.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $325 | +46.7% | |
| Forward earnings | 20% | $214 | -3.1% | |
| Owner earnings | 15% | $414 | +87.2% | |
| FCFF DCF | 15% | $440 | +98.9% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $512 | +131.4% | |
| Ddm | 5% | $165 | -25.4% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $74.0 | -66.6% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $332 | +49.0% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.6% | $451 | $561 | $568 | $568 | $568 |
| 5.6% | $325 | $378 | $451 | $561 | $568 |
| 6.6% | $253 | $285 | $325 | $378 | $451 |
| 7.6% | $208 | $228 | $253 | $285 | $325 |
| 8.6% | $179 | $191 | $208 | $228 | $253 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.7
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment7.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality4.5
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
6.7/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.7 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core portfolio holding. High confidence (75) allows for a full standard allocation (3-5%).
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$221
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim if the stock approaches the $330-$350 range where the valuation gap closes, or exit completely if free cash flow structurally declines below $15B annually.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E17.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE26.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC13.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All JNJ indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
285
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 285 of 285 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on JNJ
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this JNJ report
What is the current JNJ stock rating?
Johnson & Johnson is currently shown with Strong Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full JNJ analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/JNJ/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for JNJ?
The latest report frames JNJ around $245 to $419. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the JNJ page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
Strong BuyJNJ · Fair value $332+49.0% · Confidence 88/100