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KLAC trades against a final fair-value range of $735.74-$1,243.87, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $736, high $1244, with mid-point at $984.
Stock analysis

KLAC fair value $736–$1,244

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
분석일: 2026-05-08다음 업데이트: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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주가
$1869.19
▼ -884.78 (-47.33%)
공정 가치
$984
$736–$1244
등급
매도
confidence 84/100
상승 여력
-47.3%
upside to fair value
안전 마진
$836.75
MoS level · 15%
시가총액
$244.2B
P/E fwd 37.7
영어 원본으로 대체KO
번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중
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§1 개요

  • Composite fair value $984 with high case $1,244.
  • Implied downside of 47.3% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 84/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$984
Margin of safety
-89.9%
Confidence
84/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$1,869.19Price
Low $735.74
Mid $984.41
High $1,243.87

KLAC trades against a final fair-value range of $735.74-$1,243.87, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Dominant market share in advanced
    Dominant market share in advanced metrology and inspection.
  • High capital intensity of advanced
    High capital intensity of advanced node defect detection.
  • Bull thesis
    Value: Extreme overvaluation relative to normalized cash flows.

§2 베어 케이스

A synchronized downturn in global WFE spending combined with strict export bans on advanced metrology tools to China severely contracts near-term revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions.. Elevated R&D requirements for 2nm transitions crush operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA., forcing margins well below mid-cycle averages.

이 논제가 무너지는 경로

China Export Ban Expansion

· Medium

Complete restriction on all tier-1 process control equipment sales to Chinese foundries, eliminating a high-margin revenue vector.

FV impact
High
Trigger
12-24 months

WFE Cyclical Collapse

· Medium

Prolonged memory and foundry capex freeze delays 2nm and advanced packaging ramps, stalling KLA's growth trajectory.

FV impact
High
Trigger
6-18 months

Margin Compression via R&D

· Low

Defect detection at angstrom levels demands exponentially higher R&D, structurally degrading peak operating margins below 35%.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
24-36 months
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표현재트리거 임계값
Consecutive quarters of declining WFE capex forecasts.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increased stringency in US Department of Commerce export controls.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential operating margin degradation below 38%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Delay in major foundry 2nm production schedules.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deceleration in advanced packaging (CoWoS) capacity expansion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 재무 이력

손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
기간2021-06-302022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
매출—$9.21B$10.50B$9.81B$12.16B+7.2%
매출총이익—$5.62B$6.28B$5.88B$7.40B+7.1%
영업이익—$3.65B$3.99B$3.64B$5.01B+8.2%
순이익—$3.32B$3.39B$2.76B$4.06B+5.2%
EPS (희석)$13.37$21.92$24.15$20.28—+11.0%
EBITDA—$4.01B$4.50B$3.90B$5.34B+7.4%
R&D—$1.11B$1.30B$1.28B$1.36B+5.3%
판관비—$860.0M$986.3M$969.5M$1.03B+4.6%

품질 점수

Piotroski F-스코어
9 / 9
0–9 품질 종합
Altman Z-스코어
14.61
파산 위험 (>3 안전)
Beneish M-스코어
-2.25
이익 조작 위험
OCF / 순이익
1.01×
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Pass
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
36.2%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3

Numbers analysis

현금 흐름

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

자본 배분

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더

전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

KLAC income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of KLAC (KLAC) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

KLAC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, KLAC looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $1869 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $984 (range $736–$1244), which implies roughly 47.3% downside to the midpoint.

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