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Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)

NASDAQ: MRNA · Real-Time Price · USD
$54.4
+5.81 (+12.0%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research

Our analysis: MRNA rated Hold

Hold. While long-term pipeline optionality exists, near-term cash burn and binary trial risks dictate a cautious approach.

Fair value (mid)
$58.3 / share
$41.7 – $78.8
Upside to FV
+9.4%
from $54.4
Confidence
54/100
Moat
3/10
Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo
9-phase methodology · same model every month
Biggest opportunityBull case · highest-impact upside lever

Bull: The mRNA platform's speed and adaptability result in best-in-class efficacy for multiple latent virus and oncology targets. MRNA establishes a broad, highly profitable commercial portfolio, driving revenues back toward $10B+ with 70%+ gross margins and substantial operating leverage.

Biggest riskTop kill scenario by severity
Pipeline Failure

Pipeline Failure: Late-stage trials for CMV and personalized oncology fail primary endpoints, leaving reliance on a shrinking respiratory market.

Recommended actionConviction: low
Hold

Hold. The $58.30 fair value implies ~9.4% upside, but the 54/100 confidence score reflects massive binary pipeline risks.

Position sizing playbook →
Market cap$21.1B
Revenue (ttm)2.2B
Net income (ttm)-3.2B
EPS (ttm)$-8.16
Shares out396.8M
Volume20,925,653
Beta1.06
Price target$36.8-32.3%
Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm)
2.2B
Net income (ttm)
-3.2B
EPS (ttm)
$-8.16
Market cap
$21.1B

Scenarios & expected return

Probability-weighted: +9.4% expected return to fair value
Bull25%
Price target
$78.75
+47.8% from spot

The mRNA platform's speed and adaptability result in best-in-class efficacy for multiple latent virus and oncology targets. MRNA establishes a broad, highly profitable commercial portfolio, driving revenues back toward $10B+ with 70%+ gross margins and substantial operating leverage.

  • Broad adoption of CMV vaccine
  • Personalized oncology success
  • Terminal EV/Rev expands beyond 8x
Base45%
Price target
$58.30
+9.4% from spot

Moderna undergoes a high-risk transition, absorbing multi-billion dollar operating losses to sustain its $3.1B R&D engine. The validated mRNA platform produces sufficient new blockbusters to return to revenue growth and reach steady-state profitability by the end of the decade.

  • RSV scales modestly
  • R&D pipeline yields 1-2 successes
  • Terminal EV/Rev of 8.0x
Bear30%
Price target
$41.68
-21.8% from spot

Non-COVID pipeline candidates face stiff competition from established incumbents or fail late-stage clinical hurdles. High cash burn depletes the balance sheet, forcing the company to raise dilutive capital at depressed valuations.

  • RSV market share minimal
  • Pipeline delays
  • Dilutive capital raise required

Valuation models & bridge

Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $58.3.
ModelWeightFV / sharevs spotContribution
Ev revenue100%$58.3+7.3%
Reverse DCF0%$0.00-100.0%
FCFF DCF0%$0.00-100.0%
Peg adjusted peer0%$0.00-100.0%
Owner earnings0%$0.00-100.0%
Composite FV (weighted)100%$58.3+9.4%

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Ke ↓ / g →2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%
7.5%$68.8$75.7$84.0$94.5$102
8.5%$58.3$63.1$68.8$75.7$84.0
9.5%$50.6$54.1$58.3$63.1$68.8
10.5%$44.6$47.4$50.6$54.1$58.3
11.5%$40.0$42.2$44.6$47.4$50.6

Scorecard

Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
ValuationManagementBalanceProfitabilityRevenueRiskCompetitiveEarningsCapital
Valuation5.0
Management6.3
Balance Sheet8.5
Profitability1.5
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment8.0
Competitive Moat3.0
Earnings Quality5.0
Capital Efficiency2.5
Weighted composite
5.4/10
Mixed
CategoryWeightScoreReading
Valuation11%5.0
Management11%6.3
Balance Sheet11%8.5
Profitability11%1.5
Revenue Growth11%9.0
Risk Assessment11%8.0
Competitive Moat11%3.0
Earnings Quality11%5.0
Capital Efficiency11%2.5

Position sizing & entry playbook

Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 54/100
Target weight
Keep sizing minimal due to binary clinical trial risks and high cash burn.
of equity sleeve
Awaiting clear signs of non-COVID revenue stabilization or pipeline derisking.
Current / pullbacks
Current price
Today’s last trade
$54.4
Cut position if cash burn accelerates or critical CMV/oncology trials fail.
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
  • Cut position if cash burn accelerates or critical CMV/oncology trials fail.
Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE-36.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC-66.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a

All MRNA indicators

Market & fundamental data
Available fields
214
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 214 of 214 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

26
MetricValue
Cik
0001682852
Company name
Moderna, Inc.
Country
United States
Country code
US
Cusip
60770K107
Employees
4,700
Employees Change
-1,100%
Employees Change Percent
-18.97
Enterprise value
$15.4B
Exchange
NASDAQ
Financial currency
USD
First seen
2026-05-09
In Index
SP500
Industry
Biotechnology
IPO Date
2018-12-07
Isin
US60770K1079
Last refreshed
2026-05-10
Market cap
$21.6B
Market cap category
Large-Cap
Price
$54.35
Price currency
USD
Rev Per Employee
473,404.26x
Sector
Healthcare
Sic
2836
Symbol
MRNA
Website
https://www.modernatx.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

7
MetricValue
Earnings Yield
-14.81%
EV Sales Forward
7.75x
EV/Sales
6.92x
FCF yield
-7.43%
P/B ratio
2.91x
P/S ratio
9.69x
PS Forward
10.85x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

16
MetricValue
EBIT Margin
-113.89%
EBITDA Margin
-103.33%
Gross margin
-69.89%
Gross Profit
$-1.6B
Net Income
$-3.2B
Net Income Growth Years
2%
Pretax Margin
-141.03%
Profit Margin
-143.55%
Profit Per Employee
$-679,574
ROA
-13.09
Roa5y
6.72
ROCE
-27.87
ROE
-36.56
Roe5y
22.02
ROIC
-66.19
Roic5y
177.6

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

10
MetricValue
Cagr1y
126.02%
Cagr3y
-26.52%
Cagr5y
-19.74%
EPS Growth Years
2
Revenue Growth
-29.97x
Revenue Growth Q
260.19x
Revenue Growth Quarters
1x
Revenue Growth Years
0x
Revenue Growth3 Y
-47.13x
Revenue Growth5 Y
-4.02x

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

19
MetricValue
Asset Turnover
$0.18
Assets
$11.5B
Cash
$5.2B
Current Assets
$5.8B
Current Liabilities
$2.4B
Debt
$1.3B
Debt Equity
$0.18
Equity
$7.4B
Interest Coverage
-97.46
Liabilities
$4.1B
Long Term Assets
$5.7B
Long Term Liabilities
$1.7B
Net Cash
$6.2B
Net Cash By Market Cap
$28.56
Net Cash Growth
-19.48%
Net Debt Equity
$-0.83
Tangible Book Value
$7.2B
Tangible Book Value Per Share
$18.24
WACC
9.58

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

6
MetricValue
Current ratio
2.41
Inventory Turnover
27.59
Net Working Capital
$-1.8B
Quick ratio
2.23
Working Capital
$3.4B
Working Capital Turnover
$0.52

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

2
MetricValue
Buyback Yield
-1.62%
Dividend Yield
0%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

40
MetricValue
1Y total return
125.89%
200-day SMA
36.12
3Y total return
-60.34%
50-day SMA
51.6
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA
50over200
5Y total return
-66.69%
All Time High
497.5
All Time High Change
-89.08%
All Time High Date
2021-08-10
All Time Low
11.54
All Time Low Change
370.97%
All Time Low Date
2019-08-07
ATR
3.36
Beta
1.06
Beta1y
1.18
Beta2y
1.14
Ch YTD
84.3
High
57.78
High52
59.55
High52 Date
2026-03-04
High52ch
-8.73%
Low
48.98
Low52
22.28
Low52 Date
2025-11-21
Low52ch
143.94%
Ma50ch
5.33%
Premarket Change Percent
0.68
Premarket Price
$48.87
Premarket Volume
124,944
Price vs 200-day SMA
50.47%
RSI
60.56
RSI Monthly
48.92
RSI Weekly
62.97
Sharpe ratio
1.52x
Sortino ratio
2.71
Total Return
-1.62%
Tr YTD
84.3
Tr1m
8.46%
Tr1w
19.79%
Tr3m
32.53%

Analyst estimates

Ratings, targets, revisions, and forward estimate fields.

13
MetricValue
Analyst Count
12
Analyst Count Top
4
Analyst Price Target Top
$34.33
Analyst Ratings
Hold
Analyst Ratings Top
Hold
Earnings EPS Estimate
$-3.71
Earnings Revenue Estimate
233,785,944x
Earnings Revenue Estimate Growth
116.47x
Operating Income
$-2.5B
Operating margin
-113.9
Price target
$36.82
Price Target Change
$-32.25
Price Target Change Top
$-36.84

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

11
MetricValue
Float
370,094,602%
Float Percent
93.27%
Net Borrowing
580,000,000
Shares Insiders
6.64%
Shares Institutions
80.34%
Shares Out
396,786,259
Shares Qo Q
0.77%
Shares Yo Y
1.62%
Short Float
16.06%
Short Ratio
9.78
Short Shares
14.98

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings yet.

64
MetricValue
Adjusted FCF
$-2.1B
Average Volume
6,843,673.45x
Bv Per Share
18.66
CAPEX
$-137M
Ch1m
8.46
Ch1w
19.79
Ch1y
125.9
Ch3m
32.53
Ch3y
-60.34
Ch5y
-66.69
Ch6m
121.5
Change
11.97%
Change From Open
10.92
Close
48.54
Days Gap
0.95
Depreciation Amortization
235,000,000
Dollar Volume
1,137,309,240.6
Earnings Date
2026-05-01
Earnings Time
bmo
EBIT
$-2.5B
EBITDA
$-2.3B
EPS
$-8.16
F Score
2
FCF
$-1.6B
FCF EV Yield
-10.4x
FCF Per Share
$-4.04
Financing CF
606,000,000
Fiscal Year End
December
Founded
2,010
Goodwill
52,000,000
Income Tax
$56M
Investing CF
1,140,000,000
Is Primary Listing
1
Is Spac
No
Last Earnings Date
2026-05-01
Last Report Date
2026-03-31
Last Split Type
Never
Last10k Filing Date
2026-02-20
Ma150
39.29
Ma150ch
38.32%
Ma20
50.64
Ma20ch
7.33%
Net CF
283,000,000
Next Earnings Date
2026-07-31
Open
49
Optionable
Yes
Position In Range
61.02
Post Close
54.35
Postmarket Change Percent
3.59
Postmarket Price
$56.3
Ppne
2,792,000,000
Pre Close
48.54
Price Date
2026-05-08
Ptbv Ratio
2.98
Relative Volume
3.06x
Revenue
2,225,000,000x
SBC By Revenue
21.21x
Share Based Comp
472,000,000
Tax By Revenue
2.52x
Tr6m
121.48%
Us State
Massachusetts
Views
145
Volume
20,925,653
Z Score
2.36

Deeper analysis on MRNA

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
→
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
→
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
→
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
→
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
→
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
→
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
→
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
→
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
→
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
→
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
→
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
→
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
→
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
→

Frequently asked questions

About this MRNA report
What is the current MRNA stock rating?
Moderna, Inc. is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full MRNA analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/MRNA/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for MRNA?
The latest report frames MRNA around $42 to $79. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the MRNA page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldMRNA · Fair value $58.3+9.4% · Confidence 54/100
Read full analysis →