Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
NEM trades against a final fair-value range of $134.25-$241.74, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $134, high $242, with mid-point at $181.
Stock analysis

NEM fair value $134–$242

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
분석일: 2026-05-10다음 업데이트: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Cyclical
View archive
주가
$116.51
▲ +64.69 (+55.52%)
공정 가치
$181
$134–$242
등급
적극 매수
confidence 88/100
상승 여력
+55.5%
upside to fair value
안전 마진
$154.02
MoS level · 15%
시가총액
$124.4B
P/E fwd 10.3
영어 원본으로 대체KO
번역하는 동안 영어 원본을 표시 중
이 리포트는 아직 번역되지 않았습니다. 번역 대기열이 따라잡으면 몇 분 후에 새로고침하세요.

§1 개요

  • Composite fair value $181 with high case $242.
  • Implied upside of 55.5% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 88/100 · Cyclical.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$181
Margin of safety
+35.7%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$116.51Price
Low $134.25
Mid $181.2
High $241.74

NEM trades against a final fair-value range of $134.25-$241.74, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Scale advantages in tier-one gold
    Scale advantages in tier-one gold jurisdictions.
  • Diversified global portfolio limits single-asset
    Diversified global portfolio limits single-asset risk.
  • Cycle upside
    Current environment features peak margins driven by strong cyclical commodity pricing and heightened global macroeconomic uncertainty.

§2 베어 케이스

A rapid normalization of gold prices back to historical averages combined with sticky operational costs will severely compress margins. Free cash flowFree cash flowOperating cash flow minus capital expenditures. The cash a business generates after maintaining and growing its asset base — the closest accounting proxy for owner-economics. could turn negative if capital expendituresCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). remain elevated to maintain production profiles amid declining ore grades.

이 논제가 무너지는 경로

Gold Price Collapse

· Medium

Macroeconomic shift drives gold prices down significantly, wiping out the current peak margin profile.

FV impact
-30% to -40%
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Cost Inflation

· Low

Labor strikes and energy price spikes drive all-in sustaining costs above realized gold prices.

FV impact
-20%
Trigger
6-12 months

Geopolitical Expropriation

· Low

Key international assets face nationalization or prohibitive royalty increases, stripping significant production volume.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
Unpredictable
모니터링할 조기 경보 신호
지표현재트리거 임계값
Sequential quarterly declines in realized gold prices.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
AISC rising faster than baseline inflation.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Downward revisions to annual production guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unexpected increases in sustaining capital expenditures.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deteriorating political stability in key operating regions.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 재무 이력

손익계산서 — 최근 6기
항목T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
기간2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
매출$11.92B$11.81B$18.68B$22.67B+23.9%
매출총이익$3.26B$3.01B$7.14B$12.06B+54.6%
영업이익$1.61B$708.0M$5.91B$11.02B+90.1%
순이익$-429.0M$-2.49B$3.35B$7.09B—
EPS (희석)$-0.54$-2.94$2.92$6.39—
EBITDA$2.36B$320.0M$7.53B$14.09B+81.4%
R&D$229.0M$200.0M$197.0M$166.0M-10.2%
판관비$276.0M$299.0M$442.0M$382.0M+11.4%

품질 점수

Piotroski F-스코어
9 / 9
0–9 품질 종합
Altman Z-스코어
4.54
파산 위험 (>3 안전)
Beneish M-스코어
-2.71
이익 조작 위험
OCF / 순이익
1.46×
>1은 이익의 질이 높음을 의미
회계 품질 게이트
Pass
섹터 조정 게이트
ROIC
23.2%
투하자본수익률
섹션 3

Numbers analysis

현금 흐름

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

자본 배분

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

개인 구독자 — §4부터11개 섹션 더

전체 분석 읽기 — 11개 섹션 더.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

모든 커버 종목에 대한 전체 보고서
24개월 등급 아카이브
관심 목록 브리핑 + 등급 변경 알림
모든 언어로 PDF + DOCX 내보내기
무료 체험 시작
언제든지 취소 가능.
REVERSE DCF FAQ

NEM reverse dcf questions

  1. Reverse DCF for NEM (NEM) backs out the revenue or earnings growth rate the current share price implies, holding terminal value, margin, and discount-rate assumptions constant.

FAQ

NEM — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, NEM looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $117 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $181 (range $134–$242), which implies roughly 55.5% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of NEM also follow

Same archetype: cyclical