NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI)
NASDAQ: NXPI · Real-Time Price · USD
$295
+4.53 (+1.6%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: NXPI rated Reduce
NXPI is rated Reduce at $294.75 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $249.40, implying -15.39% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$249 / share
$152 – $349
Upside to FV
-15.4%
from $295
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: A rapid rebound in industrial IoT demand and accelerating silicon content per vehicle drive margin expansion and outsized free cash flow generation, fully justifying the current market premium.
Biggest risk
Prolonged Automotive Downcycle
Prolonged Automotive Downcycle: Global auto sales stagnate, pushing OEMs to slash semiconductor orders and violently bleed excess channel inventory.
Recommended action
Reduce
NXPI is rated Reduce at $294.75 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $249.40, implying -15.39% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $74.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 12.6B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 2.7B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $10.5 | |
| Shares out | 252.5M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 28.2x | |
| P/E (forward) | 16.7x | |
| Dividend | $4.06 (1.38%) | |
| Volume | 6,908,710 | |
| Beta | 1.78 | |
| Price target | $288 | -2.3% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 12.6B
- Net income (ttm)
- 2.7B
- EPS (ttm)
- $10.5
- P/E (trailing)
- 28.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 16.7x
- Market cap
- $74.4B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $13.21B | $13.28B | $12.61B | $12.27B | -2.4% |
| Gross profit | $7.52B | $7.55B | $7.12B | $6.72B | -3.7% |
| Operating income | $3.79B | $3.68B | $3.47B | $3.04B | -7.2% |
| Net income | $2.79B | $2.80B | $2.51B | $2.02B | -10.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | $10.55 | $10.70 | $9.73 | $7.95 | -9.0% |
| EBITDA | $5.04B | $4.90B | $4.42B | $3.96B | -7.7% |
| R&D | $2.15B | $2.42B | $2.35B | $2.36B | +3.2% |
| SG&A | $1.07B | $1.16B | $1.16B | $1.20B | +4.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $152
- Fair value (mid)
- $249
- Fair value (high)
- $349
- Current price
- $295
- Upside to mid
- -15.4%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $238 | 45% |
| Owner earnings | $318 | 35% |
| FCFF DCF | $148 | 15% |
| Discounted earnings | $183 | 5% |
| Ddm | $51.96 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $171 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $54.97 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$288
-2.3%
In the news
Latest news · NXPI
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $74.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 28.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 16.7x
- P/S
- 5.9x
- P/B
- 6.8x
- PEG
- 1.16
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.2x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 55.6%
- Operating margin
- 32.0%
- ROE
- 25.8%
- ROA
- 9.6%
- ROIC
- 16.6%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.04
- Current ratio
- 2.24
- Quick ratio
- 1.36
Trading
- Beta
- 1.78
- Volume
- 6,908,710
- Dividend yield
- 1.4%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -15.4% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$348.82
+18.3% from spot
A rapid rebound in industrial IoT demand and accelerating silicon content per vehicle drive margin expansion and outsized free cash flow generation, fully justifying the current market premium.
- Double-digit CAGR in EV silicon content.
- Gross margins permanently expand past 60%.
- Flawless execution of capital return programs.
Base60%
Price target
$249.40
-15.4% from spot
internal valuation cross-checks expectations of a 14.5% cyclical revenue snapback materialize, but standard FCFF trailing economics and a conservative 16x terminal multiple drag intrinsic value below the current price.
- 14.5% Year 1 internal valuation cross-checks revenue growth.
- Operating margins stabilize at 26%.
- Terminal PE Multiple caps at 16x.
Bear20%
Price target
$151.79
-48.5% from spot
A prolonged automotive downcycle and increased competition in microcontrollers lead to pricing pressure, compressing margins and stunting revenue growth, pushing value to the trailing earnings floor.
- Long-term revenue growth falls below 5%.
- Operating margins compress below 20%.
- Terminal valuation multiples contract to the low-teens.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $249.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 45% | $238 | -19.3% | |
| Owner earnings | 35% | $318 | +7.7% | |
| FCFF DCF | 15% | $148 | -49.9% | |
| Discounted earnings | 5% | $183 | -38.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $52.0 | -82.4% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $171 | -41.8% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $55.0 | -81.4% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $249 | -15.4% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $279 | $296 | $316 | $338 | $364 |
| 11.0% | $249 | $263 | $279 | $296 | $316 |
| 12.0% | $226 | $237 | $249 | $263 | $279 |
| 13.0% | $206 | $215 | $226 | $237 | $249 |
| 14.0% | $190 | $198 | $206 | $215 | $226 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet6.5
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment5.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
6.6/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Underweight or zero-weight given the -15.4% downside to base fair value.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$295
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure on cyclical rallies above $300, reallocating capital to semiconductors with wider margins of safety.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E16.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE25.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC16.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
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Market & fundamental data
Available fields
280
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 280 of 280 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on NXPI
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this NXPI report
What is the current NXPI stock rating?
NXP Semiconductors N.V. is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full NXPI analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/NXPI/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for NXPI?
The latest report frames NXPI around $152 to $349. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the NXPI page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceNXPI · Fair value $249-15.4% · Confidence 88/100