UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
NYSE: UNH · Real-Time Price · USD
$380
+10.24 (+2.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: UNH rated Reduce
Reduce rating assigned. The current market price exceeds our $339.99 fair value midpoint by 10%, fully pricing in a rapid margin recovery while ignoring near-term headwinds.
Fair value (mid)
$340 / share
$230 – $450
Upside to FV
-10.1%
from $380
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Margins recover swiftly to historical 8% highs, and Optum drives accelerated growth, unlocking the high-end valuation.
Biggest risk
Permanent MA Rate Cuts
Permanent MA Rate Cuts: Regulatory agencies structurally enforce severe Medicare Advantage rate cuts, permanently destroying UNH margin profiles.
Recommended action
Reduce
We rate UNH a Reduce (or Hold for strictly long-term, tax-sensitive accounts). The heavily penalized $339.99 midpoint reflects near-term operational realities.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $343.3B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 449.7B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 12B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $13.2 | |
| Shares out | 908.1M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 28.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 18.2x | |
| Dividend | $8.84 (2.33%) | |
| Volume | 6,455,081 | |
| Beta | 0.65 | |
| Price target | $385 | +1.2% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 449.7B
- Net income (ttm)
- 12B
- EPS (ttm)
- $13.2
- P/E (trailing)
- 28.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 18.2x
- Market cap
- $343.3B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $287.60B | $324.16B | $371.62B | $400.28B | $447.57B | +11.7% |
| Gross profit | $69.65B | $79.62B | $90.96B | $89.40B | $82.92B | +4.5% |
| Operating income | $23.97B | $28.44B | $32.36B | $32.29B | $18.96B | -5.7% |
| Net income | $17.29B | $20.12B | $22.38B | $14.41B | $12.06B | -8.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $18.08 | $21.18 | $23.86 | $15.51 | $13.23 | -7.5% |
| EBITDA | $27.07B | $31.84B | $36.33B | $28.08B | $23.06B | -3.9% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $230
- Fair value (mid)
- $340
- Fair value (high)
- $450
- Current price
- $380
- Upside to mid
- -10.1%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted earnings | $1008 | 8% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $192 | 35% |
| Owner earnings | $498 | 25% |
| FCFF DCF | $255 | 17% |
| Forward earnings | $162 | 15% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $158 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$385
+1.2%
In the news
Latest news · UNH
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $343.3B
- P/E (trailing)
- 28.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 18.2x
- P/S
- 0.8x
- P/B
- 3.5x
- PEG
- 1.82
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 18.8%
- Operating margin
- 4.2%
- ROE
- 12.2%
- ROA
- 3.8%
- ROIC
- 9.0%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.74
- Current ratio
- 0.80
- Quick ratio
- 0.72
Trading
- Beta
- 0.65
- Volume
- 6,455,081
- Dividend yield
- 2.3%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -10.1% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$449.63
+18.9% from spot
Margins recover swiftly to historical 8% highs, and Optum drives accelerated growth, unlocking the high-end valuation.
- Margin recovery swiftly returns to historical 8% highs.
- Terminal multiple expands above 20x due to fading regulatory overhang.
Base60%
Price target
$339.99
-10.1% from spot
Near-term stagnation is followed by a gradual margin recovery to 6%, with a terminal multiple of 18x safely anchoring valuation.
- Normalized margins stabilize at a conservative 6%.
- Terminal multiple anchored at 18x to reflect ongoing headwinds.
Bear20%
Price target
$230.47
-39.0% from spot
Persistent MCR pressure and regulatory headwinds cause structural operating margin compression, dragging fair value to the downside.
- Margins compress permanently to the 4.2% level.
- Long-term structural growth stalls significantly.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $340.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discounted earnings | 8% | $1008 | +165.3% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $192 | -49.4% | |
| Owner earnings | 25% | $498 | +31.0% | |
| FCFF DCF | 17% | $255 | -33.0% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $162 | -57.3% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $158 | -58.5% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $340 | -10.1% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0% | $586 | $687 | $687 | $687 | $687 |
| 5.0% | $393 | $470 | $586 | $687 | $687 |
| 6.0% | $295 | $337 | $393 | $470 | $586 |
| 7.0% | $237 | $263 | $295 | $337 | $393 |
| 8.0% | $216 | $216 | $237 | $263 | $295 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet4.0
Profitability5.0
Revenue Growth4.5
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
6.0/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 4.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Given the Reduce rating and -10.07% downside to fair value, allocate underweight or zero new capital.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$380
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Take profits or trim exposure at current levels above $378, given structurally capped upside and margin realities.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E18.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE12.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All UNH indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
269
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 269 of 269 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on UNH
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this UNH report
What is the current UNH stock rating?
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full UNH analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/UNH/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for UNH?
The latest report frames UNH around $230 to $450. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the UNH page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceUNH · Fair value $340-10.1% · Confidence 88/100