Welltower Inc. (WELL)
NYSE: WELL · Real-Time Price · USD
$215
+1.68 (+0.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: WELL rated Sell
WELL is rated Sell at $214.63 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $65.79, implying -69.35% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$65.8 / share
$56.3 – $78.6
Upside to FV
-69.3%
from $215
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Flawless execution of the Welltower Business System completely offsets labor inflation, while demographic demand drives unprecedented occupancy and sustained margin expansion.
Biggest risk
Cost of Capital Blowout
Cost of Capital Blowout: Prolonged high interest rates severely limit accretive acquisition volume and compress real estate cap rates across the sector.
Recommended action
Sell
WELL is rated Sell at $214.63 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $65.79, implying -69.35% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $151.5B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 11.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.4B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $2.05 | |
| Shares out | 705.9M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 104.9x | |
| P/E (forward) | 64.5x | |
| Dividend | $2.96 (1.38%) | |
| Volume | 2,733,829 | |
| Beta | 0.83 | |
| Price target | $226 | +5.5% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 11.8B
- Net income (ttm)
- 1.4B
- EPS (ttm)
- $2.05
- P/E (trailing)
- 104.9x
- P/E (forward)
- 64.5x
- Market cap
- $151.5B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $5.78B | $6.48B | $7.85B | $10.67B | +22.7% |
| Gross profit | $2.22B | $2.53B | $3.02B | $4.18B | +23.5% |
| Operating income | $746.2M | $940.5M | $1.15B | $355.2M | -21.9% |
| Net income | $141.2M | $340.1M | $951.7M | $936.8M | +87.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.30 | $0.66 | $1.57 | $1.39 | +66.7% |
| EBITDA | $2.04B | $2.40B | $2.78B | $2.31B | +4.2% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $150.4M | $179.1M | $235.5M | $1.75B | +126.5% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $56.3
- Fair value (mid)
- $65.8
- Fair value (high)
- $78.6
- Current price
- $215
- Upside to mid
- -69.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Nav affo | $65.54 | 90% |
| Ddm | $67.99 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $2.87 | 0% |
| FCFF DCF | $56.55 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $128 | 0% |
| Forward earnings | $74.78 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $68.73 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $75.51 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$226
+5.5%
In the news
Latest news · WELL
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $151.5B
- P/E (trailing)
- 104.9x
- P/E (forward)
- 64.5x
- P/S
- 12.9x
- P/B
- 3.5x
- PEG
- 4.70
- EV / EBITDA
- 55.8x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 39.9%
- Operating margin
- 6.1%
- ROE
- 3.7%
- ROA
- 0.7%
- ROIC
- 1.1%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.44
- Current ratio
- 1.65
- Quick ratio
- 1.24
Trading
- Beta
- 0.83
- Volume
- 2,733,829
- Dividend yield
- 1.4%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -69.3% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$78.60
-63.4% from spot
Flawless execution of the Welltower Business System completely offsets labor inflation, while demographic demand drives unprecedented occupancy and sustained margin expansion.
- Accelerated near-term revenue growth exceeding internal valuation cross-checks.
- Terminal multiple holds at historical premium levels.
- Operating margins permanently expand to 20%+
Base60%
Price target
$65.79
-69.3% from spot
Demographic tailwinds materialize but are partially offset by the high cost of capital and persistent labor inflation, resulting in normalized, sustainable AFFO growth.
- 10-year terminal growth normalizes to 2.5%.
- Terminal P/AFFO equivalent multiple of 18x.
- Stable operating margin at 20%.
Bear20%
Price target
$56.34
-73.8% from spot
A higher-for-longer interest rate regime chokes off accretive acquisitions, while runaway healthcare wages permanently compress margins, dragging intrinsic value down.
- Terminal growth rate deteriorates below inflation.
- Significant compression in terminal multiples.
- Labor costs structurally impair operating margins.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $65.8.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nav affo | 90% | $65.5 | -69.5% | |
| Ddm | 10% | $68.0 | -68.3% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $2.87 | -98.7% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $56.5 | -73.7% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $128 | -40.5% | |
| Forward earnings | 0% | $74.8 | -65.2% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $68.7 | -68.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $75.5 | -64.8% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $65.8 | -69.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.4% | $83.5 | $95.9 | $113 | $116 | $116 |
| 6.4% | $66.3 | $73.9 | $83.5 | $95.9 | $113 |
| 7.4% | $55.0 | $60.1 | $66.3 | $73.9 | $83.5 |
| 8.4% | $47.0 | $50.6 | $55.0 | $60.1 | $66.3 |
| 9.4% | $41.0 | $43.8 | $47.0 | $50.6 | $55.0 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet7.0
Profitability4.0
Revenue Growth9.0
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency2.5
Weighted composite
6.3/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 4.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 2.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Zero allocation. The -71.8% gap between fair value and market price prohibits any fundamental position sizing.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$215
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Aggressively liquidate existing long positions immediately to capture the irrational market premium.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E64.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE3.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC1.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All WELL indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
252
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 252 of 252 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on WELL
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this WELL report
What is the current WELL stock rating?
Welltower Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full WELL analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/WELL/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for WELL?
The latest report frames WELL around $56 to $79. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the WELL page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellWELL · Fair value $65.8-69.3% · Confidence 88/100