Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B

Under a stressed macroeconomic and operating environment, central bank rate reductions lower float investment yields earned on $52.57B in cash against the 4.94% risk-free rate, reducing annual float income by over $3.0B. Concurrently, severe catastrophe underwriting losses and mounting legal settlements at Berkshire Hathaway Energy ($25.35B revenue) compress normalized forward EPS to $19.50 relative to the FY2026 consensus baseline of $22.25. In this bear outcome, modeled with a 25% scenario weight, intrinsic value falls to $221.71 per share, representing 56.5% downside from the share price of $509.77 as of September 18, 2026.

Wide

Berkshire Hathaway possesses a Wide economic moat supported by three distinct structural advantages: a low-cost insurance float franchise, efficient scale in continental rail and regulated energy infrastructure, and intangible acquisition reputation. Unlike peers that rely on expensive external reinsurance, Berkshire's massive balance sheet enables its property and casualty businesses to underwrite volatile risks and maintain underwriting discipline across pricing cycles.

In regulated infrastructure, Burlington Northern Santa Fe and Berkshire Hathaway Energy control critical physical assets that benefit from natural monopolies and regulatory rate bases, generating $23.26B and $25.35B in FY2025 revenue respectively. These capital-intensive networks possess formidable barriers to entry, as constructing duplicate rights-of-way or power grids is economically prohibitive.

The company's non-insurance operations span diversified industrial manufacturing ($72.83B revenue), wholesale distribution via McLane ($50.18B revenue), and travel centers ($41.88B revenue). Backed by $52.57B in cash and $45.97B in operating cash flow, this structure provides an enduring competitive position.

While Berkshire's competitive moat remains wide and durable, economic moat durability does not insulate investors from valuation risk. With shares trading at $509.77 as of September 18, 2026 compared to the house Fair value of $325.94, the market has priced in sustained compounding well above normalized operational earnings power.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK.B) trades at 23.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 10.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of -1.8x compares with a peer median of 6.0x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Bank of America Corporation, Citigroup Inc., American Express Company and Arch Capital Group Ltd., as of 2026-09-20 to 2026-09-21.

We recommend an orderly exit of long positions in Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares at the report-date price of $509.77 as of September 18, 2026, which trades at a 56.4% premium to our Fair value of $325.94.⁴

While Berkshire possesses an exemplary Wide economic moat and fortress liquidity of $52.57B in cash, current trading multiples discount future compounding beyond what normalized forward earnings can justify.