Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
NYSE: BAC · Real-Time Price · USD
$51.3
-1.44 (-2.7%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: BAC rated Reduce
Reduce. The stock trades at a substantial premium to its fundamental base-case valuation, offering an unfavorable risk-reward profile.
Fair value (mid)
$45.5 / share
$29.9 – $58.4
Upside to FV
-13.3%
from $51.3
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: A soft landing enables BAC to maintain elevated net interest income without suffering severe credit losses, pushing valuation to $58.44 as fees simultaneously rebound.
Biggest risk
Macro Hard Landing
Macro Hard Landing: A severe recession triggers a spike in consumer credit card defaults and commercial real estate losses, decimating tangible book value.
Recommended action
Reduce
Reduce. The current $52.54 price bakes in unsustainably high normalized ROE (mid-teens) and an elevated terminal P/E, exposing investors to material downside risk against our $45.55 fair value estimate.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $372.9B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 109.6B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 30.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $4.02 | |
| Shares out | 7.1B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 12.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 10.4x | |
| Dividend | $1.12 (2.18%) | |
| Volume | 36,106,284 | |
| Beta | 1.22 | |
| Price target | $60.6 | +18.1% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Bank of America CorporationBAC
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 109.6B
- Net income (ttm)
- 30.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $4.02
- P/E (trailing)
- 12.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 10.4x
- Market cap
- $372.9B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $89.11B | $94.95B | $102.77B | $105.86B | $113.10B | +6.1% |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $31.98B | $27.53B | $26.31B | $26.97B | $30.51B | -1.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $3.19 | $3.08 | $3.21 | $3.81 | +4.5% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $45.05B | $45.95B | $49.82B | $49.62B | $52.25B | +3.8% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $29.9
- Fair value (mid)
- $45.5
- Fair value (high)
- $58.4
- Current price
- $51.3
- Upside to mid
- -13.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $49.38 | 55% |
| Residual income | $43.35 | 40% |
| Ddm | $20.98 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Discounted earnings | $77.01 | 0% |
| FCFF DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $77.45 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $0.00 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $9.98 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$60.6
+18.1%
In the news
Latest news · BAC
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $372.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 12.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 10.4x
- P/S
- 3.3x
- P/B
- 1.3x
- PEG
- 0.76
Profitability
- Operating margin
- 35.7%
- ROE
- 10.6%
- ROA
- 0.9%
Trading
- Beta
- 1.22
- Volume
- 36,106,284
- Dividend yield
- 2.2%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -13.3% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$58.44
+11.2% from spot
A soft landing enables BAC to maintain elevated net interest income without suffering severe credit losses, pushing valuation to $58.44 as fees simultaneously rebound.
- Higher-for-longer interest rates.
- Macroeconomic soft landing.
- Robust capital markets rebound.
Base55%
Price target
$45.55
-13.3% from spot
Our base case implies a $45.55 fair value. The market currently prices in an overly optimistic 13.5x multiple and mid-teens ROE, exposing shares to a multiple contraction.
- 10.6% Normalized ROE.
- 12.0x Terminal P/E.
- Gradual NIM normalization.
Bear25%
Price target
$29.85
-43.2% from spot
A severe recession spikes consumer defaults and compresses net interest margins, driving valuation down to $29.85 based on heavily depressed single-digit ROE.
- Macroeconomic hard landing.
- CRE portfolio deterioration.
- Net interest margin collapse.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $45.5.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 55% | $49.4 | -3.8% | |
| Residual income | 40% | $43.4 | -15.5% | |
| Ddm | 5% | $21.0 | -59.1% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $77.0 | +50.1% | |
| FCFF DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 0% | $77.5 | +50.9% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $9.98 | -80.5% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $45.5 | -13.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $54.4 | $60.2 | $67.4 | $76.6 | $79.7 |
| 7.7% | $45.5 | $49.6 | $54.4 | $60.2 | $67.4 |
| 8.7% | $39.2 | $42.1 | $45.5 | $49.6 | $54.4 |
| 9.7% | $34.4 | $36.6 | $39.2 | $42.1 | $45.5 |
| 10.7% | $30.6 | $32.4 | $34.4 | $36.6 | $39.2 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management5.8
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality4.5
Capital Efficiency4.0
Weighted composite
5.8/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.8 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 4.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Current pricing dictates an underweight or zero-weight stance given the -13.3% downside to the base-case intrinsic value.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$51.3
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Reduce exposure into current strength above $50, capitalizing on market exuberance regarding a flawless economic soft landing.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E10.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE10.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROICn/a
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All BAC indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
246
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 246 of 246 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on BAC
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this BAC report
What is the current BAC stock rating?
Bank of America Corporation is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full BAC analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/BAC/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for BAC?
The latest report frames BAC around $30 to $58. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the BAC page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceBAC · Fair value $45.5-13.3% · Confidence 88/100