Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.
MELI trades against a final fair-value range of $1,346.18-$4,150.74, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Under a 50% regional currency devaluation and 10% volume contraction, the model shifts toward the owner earningsOwner earningsBuffett-method cash earnings: net income plus D&A minus maintenance capex. A floor estimate of the cash a business throws off after sustaining its current productive base. floor of $1,508. High cash conversion (6.06x OCF/NIOCF/NI ratioOperating cash flow divided by net income. Measures earnings-to-cash conversion. Below 0.8 triggers a soft-pass yellow card on our quality gate.) provides a buffer against solvency risk, but USD-denominated multiple compression would be severe.
Simultaneous currency collapses in Brazil and Argentina wipe out USD-denominated earnings growth and trigger capital flight.
Central bank interventions on interest rate caps or credit risk reserves significantly impair the profitability of the Mercado Pago lending engine.
Global competitors achieve logistics parity through massive capital investment, eroding the primary delivery speed advantage and forcing a price war.
| Post | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omzet | $10.78B | $15.11B+40.2% | $20.78B+37.5% | $28.89B+39.0% | +38.9% |
| Brutowinst | $5.20B | $7.59B | $9.58B | $12.86B | +35.2% |
| Bedrijfsresultaat | $1.07B | $2.21B | $2.63B | $3.20B | +44.1% |
| Nettowinst | $482.0M | $987.0M+104.8% | $1.91B+93.5% | $2.00B+4.7% | +60.6% |
| WPA (verwaterd) | $9.53 | $19.46 | $37.69 | $39.40 | +60.5% |
| EBITDA | $1.32B | $2.25B | $3.21B | $3.82B | +42.6% |
| R&D | $1.10B | $1.83B | $1.93B | $2.27B | +27.3% |
| VAA | $1.96B | $2.50B | $3.15B | $4.30B | +30.0% |
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
