Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK)
NYSE: ROK · Real-Time Price · USD
$454
+5.34 (+1.2%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: ROK rated Sell
Sell. Quality business priced for impossible mathematical perfection.
Fair value (mid)
$162 / share
$126 – $199
Upside to FV
-64.4%
from $454
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.4/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Even under hyper-optimistic growth and margin expansion scenarios, the current price is mathematically unsupportable by intrinsic cash flows.
Biggest risk
Valuation Mean Reversion
Valuation Mean Reversion: The market realizes the 18.8% implied growth rate is unattainable and the multiple compresses from 31x to the historical 18x average.
Recommended action
Sell
Sell. Market cap of over $50B is profoundly disconnected from a $1B base FCFF.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $50.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 8.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.1B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $9.63 | |
| Shares out | 111.3M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 47.1x | |
| P/E (forward) | 31.5x | |
| Dividend | $5.52 (1.22%) | |
| Volume | 1,063,039 | |
| Beta | 1.56 | |
| Price target | $429 | -5.6% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 8.8B
- Net income (ttm)
- 1.1B
- EPS (ttm)
- $9.63
- P/E (trailing)
- 47.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 31.5x
- Market cap
- $50.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-09-30 | 2023-09-30 | 2024-09-30 | 2025-09-30 | Trend |
| Revenue | $7.76B | $9.06B | $8.26B | $8.34B | +2.4% |
| Gross profit | $3.10B | $4.42B | $3.85B | $4.02B | +9.0% |
| Operating income | $1.34B | $1.69B | $1.19B | $1.42B | +2.1% |
| Net income | $932.2M | $1.39B | $953.0M | $869.0M | -2.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $7.97 | $11.95 | $8.28 | $7.67 | -1.3% |
| EBITDA | $1.44B | $1.99B | $1.57B | $1.40B | -0.9% |
| R&D | — | $706.0M | $658.0M | $679.0M | -1.3% |
| SG&A | $1.77B | $2.02B | $2.00B | $1.91B | +2.7% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $126
- Fair value (mid)
- $162
- Fair value (high)
- $199
- Current price
- $454
- Upside to mid
- -64.4%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $201 | 50% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $153 | 20% |
| FCFF DCF | $114 | 20% |
| Ddm | $81.57 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$429
-5.6%
In the news
Latest news · ROK
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $50.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 47.1x
- P/E (forward)
- 31.5x
- P/S
- 5.7x
- P/B
- 14.3x
- PEG
- 2.30
- EV / EBITDA
- 27.5x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 48.9%
- Operating margin
- 18.9%
- ROE
- 27.2%
- ROA
- 9.3%
- ROIC
- 19.1%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 1.13
- Current ratio
- 1.09
- Quick ratio
- 0.62
Trading
- Beta
- 1.56
- Volume
- 1,063,039
- Dividend yield
- 1.2%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -64.4% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$199.06
-56.3% from spot
Even under hyper-optimistic growth and margin expansion scenarios, the current price is mathematically unsupportable by intrinsic cash flows.
- Hyper-growth in reshoring capex sustains higher multiples.
- Software mix pushes margins structurally higher.
Base60%
Price target
$162.13
-64.4% from spot
Valuation normalizes to mature industrial averages as the market digests the impossibility of sustained 18.8% growth.
- Terminal growth normalizes to 2.5%.
- Terminal multiple reverts to 18x.
Bear20%
Price target
$125.97
-72.3% from spot
A cyclical downturn forces an immediate multiple collapse as earnings power drops while fixed costs remain.
- Prolonged industrial recession.
- Margin contraction below 18%.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $162.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 50% | $201 | -55.7% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 20% | $153 | -66.2% | |
| FCFF DCF | 20% | $114 | -74.9% | |
| Ddm | 10% | $81.6 | -82.0% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $162 | -64.4% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $234 | $255 | $280 | $310 | $348 |
| 8.6% | $201 | $216 | $234 | $255 | $280 |
| 9.6% | $176 | $188 | $201 | $216 | $234 |
| 10.6% | $157 | $166 | $176 | $188 | $201 |
| 11.6% | $141 | $149 | $157 | $166 | $176 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment5.0
Competitive Moat6.4
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
6.4/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.4 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Zero weight long; potential short candidate or source of funding.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$454
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate long positions; the 64% downside risk to fair value presents extreme capital destruction risk.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E31.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE27.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC19.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All ROK indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
286
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 286 of 286 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on ROK
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this ROK report
What is the current ROK stock rating?
Rockwell Automation, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full ROK analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/ROK/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for ROK?
The latest report frames ROK around $126 to $199. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the ROK page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellROK · Fair value $162-64.4% · Confidence 88/100