Trane Technologies plc (TT)
NYSE: TT · Real-Time Price · USD
$466
-3.62 (-0.8%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: TT rated Sell
TT is rated Sell at $471.02 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $333.06, implying -29.29% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$333 / share
$236 – $427
Upside to FV
-29.3%
from $466
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Accelerated regulatory push for green buildings drives outsized retrofit demand, pushing operating margins toward 18% and EPS growth above 15%. Even in this scenario, current pricing limits upside.
Biggest risk
Commercial Real Estate Collapse
The biggest risk is that the bear-case drivers materialize: growth slows, margins compress, or competitive pressure reduces the fair-value range.
Recommended action
Sell
TT is rated Sell at $471.02 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $333.06, implying -29.29% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $104.1B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 21.6B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 2.9B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $12.9 | |
| Shares out | 221.1M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 35.6x | |
| P/E (forward) | 27.7x | |
| Dividend | $4.20 (0.90%) | |
| Volume | 1,177,815 | |
| Beta | 1.26 | |
| Price target | $502 | +7.8% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 21.6B
- Net income (ttm)
- 2.9B
- EPS (ttm)
- $12.9
- P/E (trailing)
- 35.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 27.7x
- Market cap
- $104.1B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $15.99B | $17.68B | $19.84B | $21.32B | +10.1% |
| Gross profit | $4.96B | $5.86B | $7.08B | $7.71B | +15.8% |
| Operating income | $2.42B | $2.89B | $3.50B | $3.97B | +17.9% |
| Net income | $1.76B | $2.02B | $2.57B | $2.92B | +18.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $7.48 | $8.77 | $11.24 | $12.98 | +20.2% |
| EBITDA | $2.72B | $3.15B | $3.86B | $4.28B | +16.3% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $2.55B | $2.96B | $3.58B | $3.74B | +13.7% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $236
- Fair value (mid)
- $333
- Fair value (high)
- $427
- Current price
- $466
- Upside to mid
- -29.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $302 | 30% |
| Forward earnings | $343 | 25% |
| Owner earnings | $437 | 20% |
| Discounted earnings | $271 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $288 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $177 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$502
+7.8%
In the news
Latest news · TT
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $104.1B
- P/E (trailing)
- 35.6x
- P/E (forward)
- 27.7x
- P/S
- 4.8x
- P/B
- 12.0x
- PEG
- 2.05
- EV / EBITDA
- 25.2x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 35.9%
- Operating margin
- 18.0%
- ROE
- 36.6%
- ROA
- 11.3%
- ROIC
- 25.7%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.54
- Current ratio
- 1.10
- Quick ratio
- 0.73
Trading
- Beta
- 1.26
- Volume
- 1,177,815
- Dividend yield
- 0.9%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -29.4% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$427.31
-9.3% from spot
Bull case ties to the high end of the final fair-value range and requires better-than-modeled fundamentals or a durable improvement in the market multiple.
- Revenue growth accelerates above 10%
- Operating margins push toward 18%
- Terminal multiple expands beyond 22x
Base60%
Price target
$333.06
-29.3% from spot
Base case ties to the final fair-value midpoint and assumes the accepted model-weight synthesis remains intact.
- Revenue growth tapers from 9.6% to 5.0% over 5 years
- Operating margin holds flat at 16.0%
- Terminal multiple holds at 22x
Bear20%
Price target
$236.15
-49.9% from spot
A sustained commercial real estate downturn combined with intensified competition compresses margins and stalls volume growth, dropping EPS growth to mid-single digits and triggering a severe multiple de-rating.
- Revenue growth stalls to <5%
- Operating margins compress below 15%
- Terminal multiple contracts to peer average
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $333.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $302 | -35.3% | |
| Forward earnings | 25% | $343 | -26.5% | |
| Owner earnings | 20% | $437 | -6.2% | |
| Discounted earnings | 15% | $271 | -41.9% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $288 | -38.3% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $177 | -61.9% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $333 | -29.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($341.38). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.4% | $404 | $446 | $496 | $560 | $597 |
| 8.4% | $341 | $370 | $404 | $446 | $496 |
| 9.4% | $295 | $317 | $341 | $370 | $404 |
| 10.4% | $260 | $277 | $295 | $317 | $341 |
| 11.4% | $233 | $246 | $260 | $277 | $295 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.9
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality6.0
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
6.7/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Zero allocation. Severe divergence from intrinsic value mandates avoiding the equity at current levels.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$466
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate existing holdings. The current $471.02 price demands ~13.7% perpetual growth, capping upside and presenting deep asymmetric downside risk.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E27.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE36.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC25.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All TT indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
277
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 277 of 277 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on TT
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this TT report
What is the current TT stock rating?
Trane Technologies plc is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full TT analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/TT/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for TT?
The latest report frames TT around $236 to $427. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the TT page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellTT · Fair value $333-29.3% · Confidence 88/100