UNP trades against a final fair-value range of $183.57-$275.43, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $184, high $275, with mid-point at $229.
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§1 Samenvatting
Composite fair value $229 with high case $275.
Implied downside of 13.3% to fair value.
Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature dividend.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$229
Margin of safety
-15.4%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.
$264.65Price
Low $183.57
Mid $229.41
High $275.43
UNP trades against a final fair-value range of $183.57-$275.43, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Duopoly market structure with BNSF
Duopoly market structure with BNSF in the Western U.S.
Immense barriers to entry due
Immense barriers to entry due to high capital requirements
Bull thesis
internal valuation cross-checks is overly optimistic, valuing UNP at $291 based on extrapolation of peak multiples.
Each scenario for UNP (UNP) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.
Probability weights start from a 25/50/25 default and are asymmetry-adjusted: when downside risk is elevated, base + bear gain weight; when visibility is high (long RPO, multi-year contracts), bull and base both gain.
Expected return is the probability-weighted average of the three scenario returns. The expected-value table reports the weighted price, weighted return, and asymmetry to help the reader compare risk-reward against the rating band.
When our composite fair value differs from private calibration references by more than 30%, the calibration-divergence diagnostic is run to identify which assumptions drive the gap; the result is summarised in the parent valuation surface.
FAQ
UNP — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, UNP screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $265 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $229 (range $184–$275), which implies roughly 13.3% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for UNP is $184–$275, with a midpoint of $229. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for UNP's archetype.
Our current rating for UNP is Reduce with a confidence score of 88/100. UNP is rated Reduce at $264.65 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $229.41, implying -13.32% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for UNP are: Severe Economic Recession; Adverse Regulatory Action; Catastrophic Service Meltdown. The single biggest risk is The $229 base case fair value suggests the stock has pulled forward several years of execution.
Our current rating for UNP is Reduce, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($184–$275) versus the current price of $265.
UNP is classified as a mature-dividend stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for UNP.
