Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
NYSE: XOM · Real-Time Price · USD
$145
-2.01 (-1.4%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: XOM rated Sell
Sell. Valuation is stretched at $160.49, demanding mean-reversion to the cycle-adjusted $116.73 fair value.
Fair value (mid)
$117 / share
$95.2 – $152
Upside to FV
-27.3%
from $145
Confidence
88/100
Moat
6.5/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Higher sustained energy prices, successful integration of recent acquisitions, and scaling of low-carbon businesses drive multiple expansion and massive cash returns to shareholders.
Biggest risk
Commodity Price Collapse
Commodity Price Collapse: Severe downstream margin compression alongside a persistent sub-$60/bbl crude environment, triggering the 35% probability down-cycle stress test.
Recommended action
Sell
Sell. The stock is structurally mispriced at current cyclical peaks, completely ignoring the high probability of a prolonged down-cycle or severe capital cycle compression. Value is capped at a 15x mid-cycle multiple.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $665.2B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 326B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 25.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $5.94 | |
| Shares out | 4.1B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 24.3x | |
| P/E (forward) | 15.4x | |
| Dividend | $4.12 (2.85%) | |
| Volume | 19,539,383 | |
| Beta | 0.18 | |
| Price target | $155 | +7.0% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Exxon Mobil CorporationXOM
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 326B
- Net income (ttm)
- 25.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $5.94
- P/E (trailing)
- 24.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 15.4x
- Market cap
- $665.2B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | — | $398.68B | $334.70B | $339.25B | $323.91B | -5.1% |
| Gross profit | — | $103.07B | $84.14B | $76.74B | $71.24B | -8.8% |
| Operating income | — | $64.03B | $44.46B | $39.65B | $33.94B | -14.7% |
| Net income | — | $55.74B | $36.01B | $33.68B | $28.84B | -15.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.39 | $13.26 | $8.89 | $7.84 | $6.70 | +5.6% |
| EBITDA | — | $102.59B | $74.27B | $73.31B | $67.86B | -9.8% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | — | $10.10B | $9.92B | $9.98B | $11.13B | +2.5% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $95.2
- Fair value (mid)
- $117
- Fair value (high)
- $152
- Current price
- $145
- Upside to mid
- -27.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | $117 | 55% |
| FCFF DCF | $58.56 | 25% |
| Multi stage moat fade | $188 | 20% |
| Discounted earnings | $387 | 0% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $62.53 | 0% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Owner earnings | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $113 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$155
+7.0%
In the news
Latest news · XOM
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $665.2B
- P/E (trailing)
- 24.3x
- P/E (forward)
- 15.4x
- P/S
- 1.8x
- P/B
- 2.4x
- PEG
- 0.98
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.4x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 29.8%
- Operating margin
- 9.5%
- ROE
- 9.9%
- ROA
- 4.2%
- ROIC
- 7.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.18
- Current ratio
- 1.04
- Quick ratio
- 0.74
Trading
- Beta
- 0.18
- Volume
- 19,539,383
- Dividend yield
- 2.8%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -28.7% expected return to fair value
Bull15%
Price target
$152.04
-5.3% from spot
Higher sustained energy prices, successful integration of recent acquisitions, and scaling of low-carbon businesses drive multiple expansion and massive cash returns to shareholders.
- Multiple expands beyond the 15x baseline.
- Sustained peak commodity pricing drives persistent margin expansion.
Base50%
Price target
$116.73
-27.3% from spot
Anchors valuation using structurally smoothed forward estimates and explicitly weighted cyclical scenario bounds, appropriately factoring mid-cycle mean reversion and a 5.99% cost of equity.
- 15x terminal multiple mirrors historical integrated supermajor averages.
- 2% terminal growth rate aligns with long-term macroeconomic GDP growth.
Bear35%
Price target
$95.22
-40.7% from spot
Accelerated energy transition mandates, severe regulatory burdens, and persistent cyclical downturns in refining margins and upstream realizations erode return on capital and strand long-life assets.
- Severe capital cycle compression and margin reversion.
- Refining margins drop below 5-year historical averages.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $117.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward earnings | 55% | $117 | -18.9% | |
| FCFF DCF | 25% | $58.6 | -59.5% | |
| Multi stage moat fade | 20% | $188 | +30.0% | |
| Discounted earnings | 0% | $387 | +167.5% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 0% | $62.5 | -56.7% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Owner earnings | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $113 | -22.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $117 | -27.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($117.28). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.8% | $159 | $192 | $205 | $205 | $205 |
| 4.8% | $117 | $135 | $159 | $192 | $205 |
| 5.8% | $93.0 | $104 | $117 | $135 | $159 |
| 6.8% | $77.1 | $84.3 | $93.0 | $104 | $117 |
| 7.8% | $65.8 | $71.0 | $77.1 | $84.3 | $93.0 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management5.9
Balance Sheet7.0
Profitability5.0
Revenue Growth4.5
Risk Assessment8.5
Competitive Moat6.5
Earnings Quality6.0
Capital Efficiency5.0
Weighted composite
5.9/10
Mixed| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 7.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 4.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Heavy dependence on probability-weighted base/bear scenario assumptions commands an inherently cautious confidence ceiling of 75. Allocations are discouraged given the -27.27% downside.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$145
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Liquidate existing long exposure near current spot prices ($160.49) to capitalize on peak internal valuation cross-check exuberance before the 35% probability down-cycle manifests.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E15.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE9.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC7.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
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Russell 2000n/a
All XOM indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
278
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 278 of 278 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on XOM
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this XOM report
What is the current XOM stock rating?
Exxon Mobil Corporation is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full XOM analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/XOM/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for XOM?
The latest report frames XOM around $95 to $152. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the XOM page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellXOM · Fair value $117-27.3% · Confidence 88/100