Market regime model
A composite scorecard that classifies the equity market into a regime band (e.g. early-cycle, mid-cycle, late-cycle, contraction) by rolling up sub-components like the yield curve, earnings revisions, credit spreads, breadth, sentiment, valuation, and macro surprise into a single 0-100 score with confidence.
Composite score = mean(sub-component scores), each normalized to 0-100The market regime model is the top-of-funnel reading on the monthly outlook surface. Rather than asking whether any single indicator is bullish or bearish, it asks whether the broad equity market is operating in an environment that historically has rewarded risk-taking or punished it. Seven sub-components are normalized to a common 0-100 scale and equal-weighted into a composite. Equal weights are deliberate: weighting by perceived informativeness back-fits to the most recent regime and produces overconfident reads at exactly the moment a new regime is starting. The composite is published with an explicit confidence number, and the convention is that low confidence widens the implied fair-value band rather than tightening it. The model emits four artifacts: a regime band label, a confidence number, the seven sub-component scores with deltas, and a composite implied fair-value range for the index. It does not predict next-month returns and should not be used as a market-timing signal. Its job is to set the prior for individual position sizing — wider margin of safety in late-cycle / contraction regimes, tighter in early- / mid-cycle regimes — and to make that prior auditable.