Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP)
NASDAQ: ADP · Real-Time Price · USD
$213
-1.09 (-0.5%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: ADP rated Hold
Maintain Hold. Fair value of $240.64 is supported by pristine accounting and structural advantages, capturing a 15-year wide moat duration.
Fair value (mid)
$241 / share
$173 – $305
Upside to FV
+9.2%
from $213
Confidence
90/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Higher-for-longer rates augment margins on PEO funds, while AI-driven insights capture market share. Sustainable top-line growth reaches 8-9%.
Biggest risk
Severe Macroeconomic Recession
Severe Macroeconomic Recession: Deep recession triggers heavy workforce reductions, directly compressing seat-based billing metrics and organic revenue growth.
Recommended action
Hold
Hold. The tightly clustered synthesis yields a fair value of $240.64, representing ~9% upside. Strong underlying business quality fully justifies the current market price.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $88.1B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 21.6B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 4.3B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $10.7 | |
| Shares out | 399.7M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 19.9x | |
| P/E (forward) | 18.1x | |
| Dividend | $6.80 (3.19%) | |
| Volume | 2,804,094 | |
| Beta | 0.84 | |
| Price target | $266 | +24.9% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc.ADP
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 21.6B
- Net income (ttm)
- 4.3B
- EPS (ttm)
- $10.7
- P/E (trailing)
- 19.9x
- P/E (forward)
- 18.1x
- Market cap
- $88.1B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-06-30 | 2023-06-30 | 2024-06-30 | 2025-06-30 | Trend |
| Revenue | $16.50B | $18.01B | $19.20B | $20.56B | +7.6% |
| Gross profit | $7.04B | $8.06B | $8.73B | $9.46B | +10.4% |
| Operating income | $3.80B | $4.51B | $4.95B | $5.41B | +12.5% |
| Net income | $2.95B | $3.41B | $3.75B | $4.08B | +11.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $7.00 | $8.21 | $9.10 | $9.98 | +12.5% |
| EBITDA | $4.40B | $5.24B | $5.80B | $6.35B | +13.0% |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $3.23B | $3.55B | $3.78B | $4.05B | +7.8% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $173
- Fair value (mid)
- $241
- Fair value (high)
- $305
- Current price
- $213
- Upside to mid
- +9.2%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $228 | 25% |
| Discounted earnings | $233 | 20% |
| Owner earnings | $334 | 20% |
| Forward earnings | $221 | 15% |
| FCFF DCF | $228 | 15% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $60.78 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $132 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Hold
Price target
$266
+24.9%
In the news
Latest news · ADP
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $88.1B
- P/E (trailing)
- 19.9x
- P/E (forward)
- 18.1x
- P/S
- 3.9x
- P/B
- 13.4x
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.6x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 48.5%
- Operating margin
- 26.6%
- ROE
- 71.2%
- ROA
- 5.9%
- ROIC
- 55.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.69
- Current ratio
- 1.04
- Quick ratio
- 0.13
Trading
- Beta
- 0.84
- Volume
- 2,804,094
- Dividend yield
- 3.2%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +8.9% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$305.17
+38.4% from spot
Higher-for-longer rates augment margins on PEO funds, while AI-driven insights capture market share. Sustainable top-line growth reaches 8-9%.
- Higher-for-longer rates augment margins on PEO funds, while AI-driven insights capture market share. Sustainable top-line growth reaches 8-9%.
Base60%
Price target
$240.64
+9.2% from spot
Base case ties to the final fair-value midpoint and assumes the accepted model-weight synthesis remains intact.
- Consistent mid-single-digit revenue growth and aggressive share repurchases support steady double-digit EPS expansion. Fair value centers at $240.64.
Bear20%
Price target
$173.42
-21.3% from spot
Macro recession compresses billing metrics while falling rates strip float yield, dragging EPS growth down and contracting terminal multiples.
- Macro recession compresses billing metrics while falling rates strip float yield, dragging EPS growth down and contracting terminal multiples.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $241.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 25% | $228 | +6.9% | |
| Discounted earnings | 20% | $233 | +9.4% | |
| Owner earnings | 20% | $334 | +56.8% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $221 | +3.8% | |
| FCFF DCF | 15% | $228 | +6.9% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $60.8 | -71.5% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $132 | -38.1% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $241 | +9.2% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($240.64). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $291 | $324 | $367 | $421 | $421 |
| 7.8% | $241 | $263 | $291 | $324 | $367 |
| 8.8% | $205 | $222 | $241 | $263 | $291 |
| 9.8% | $179 | $191 | $205 | $222 | $241 |
| 10.8% | $159 | $168 | $179 | $191 | $205 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management7.7
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality8.0
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
6.9/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.7 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 90/100
Target weight
Core holding sizing appropriate due to wide moat and predictable cash flows. Limit overweighting given the thin margin of safety on WACC.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$213
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Reassess if net revenue retention materially declines or if structural ZIRP returns, permanently impairing float yields.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E18.1
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE71.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC55.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All ADP indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
283
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 283 of 283 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on ADP
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this ADP report
What is the current ADP stock rating?
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. is currently shown with Hold in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full ADP analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/ADP/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for ADP?
The latest report frames ADP around $173 to $305. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the ADP page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
HoldADP · Fair value $241+9.2% · Confidence 90/100