Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK)
NASDAQ: ADSK · Real-Time Price · USD
$245
-6.55 (-2.6%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: ADSK rated Sell
Sell. Market pricing completely disregards structural dilution and mature compounder decay metrics.
Fair value (mid)
$175 / share
$129 – $221
Upside to FV
-28.4%
from $245
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Bull: Accelerated digitization of the construction industry drives rapid Autodesk Construction Cloud adoption, expanding both pricing power and structural margins significantly.
Biggest risk
Construction Cycle Collapse
Construction Cycle Collapse: Global commercial real estate enters a multi-year deep freeze, severely cutting enterprise software seat counts and stalling BIM adoption.
Recommended action
Sell
ADSK is rated Sell at $243.63 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $174.50, implying -28.37% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $51.4B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 7.2B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 1.1B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $5.23 | |
| Shares out | 211.1M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 46.7x | |
| P/E (forward) | 17.3x | |
| Volume | 1,747,748 | |
| Beta | 1.32 | |
| Price target | $335 | +37.0% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 7.2B
- Net income (ttm)
- 1.1B
- EPS (ttm)
- $5.23
- P/E (trailing)
- 46.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 17.3x
- Market cap
- $51.4B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-01-31 | 2023-01-31 | 2024-01-31 | 2025-01-31 | 2026-01-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $4.39B | $5.01B | $5.50B | $6.13B | $7.21B | +13.2% |
| Gross profit | $3.97B | $4.53B | $4.99B | $5.55B | $6.56B | +13.4% |
| Operating income | $618.0M | $989.0M | $1.13B | $1.37B | $1.79B | +30.5% |
| Net income | $497.0M | $823.0M | $906.0M | $1.11B | $1.12B | +22.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.24 | $3.78 | $4.19 | $5.12 | $5.23 | +23.6% |
| EBITDA | $766.0M | $1.17B | $1.27B | $1.55B | $1.99B | +26.9% |
| R&D | $1.12B | $1.22B | $1.37B | $1.49B | $1.64B | +10.2% |
| SG&A | $2.20B | $2.28B | $2.44B | $2.65B | $3.07B | +8.7% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $129
- Fair value (mid)
- $175
- Fair value (high)
- $221
- Current price
- $245
- Upside to mid
- -28.4%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $127 | 30% |
| Discounted earnings | $176 | 25% |
| Owner earnings | $192 | 20% |
| Forward earnings | $268 | 15% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $141 | 5% |
| FCFF DCF | $134 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $0.00 | 0% |
| Nav affo | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ev revenue | $0.00 | 0% |
| Residual income | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$335
+37.0%
In the news
Latest news · ADSK
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $51.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 46.7x
- P/E (forward)
- 17.3x
- P/S
- 7.2x
- P/B
- 17.0x
- PEG
- 1.02
- EV / EBITDA
- 27.0x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 92.3%
- Operating margin
- 25.1%
- ROE
- 39.7%
- ROA
- 9.7%
- ROIC
- 38.9%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.90
- Current ratio
- 0.85
- Quick ratio
- 0.69
Trading
- Beta
- 1.32
- Volume
- 1,747,748
- Dividend yield
- 0.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -28.3% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$221.16
-9.2% from spot
Accelerated digitization of the construction industry drives rapid Autodesk Construction Cloud adoption, expanding both pricing power and structural margins significantly.
- Revenue growth accelerates above 15 percent annually.
- Operating margins permanently exceed 30 percent.
Base60%
Price target
$174.50
-28.4% from spot
Steady baseline growth is systematically offset by continuous SBC dilution and terminally compressed SaaS margins, proving current market multiples unmoored.
- Year 1 revenue growth fixed at 13.1 percent internal valuation cross-check.
- Terminal P/E multiple compresses to 20x.
- Long-term terminal growth rate of 3 percent.
Bear20%
Price target
$128.71
-47.2% from spot
Prolonged macroeconomic CRE downturns restrict enterprise seat growth, forcing severe multiple compression against overly optimistic unadjusted expectations.
- Net revenue retention continuously decays.
- Commercial real estate contraction forces deep licensing cuts.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $175.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 30% | $127 | -48.1% | |
| Discounted earnings | 25% | $176 | -27.9% | |
| Owner earnings | 20% | $192 | -21.5% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $268 | +9.6% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $141 | -42.3% | |
| FCFF DCF | 5% | $134 | -45.1% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Nav affo | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ev revenue | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Residual income | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $175 | -28.4% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($174.51). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $201 | $218 | $238 | $262 | $291 |
| 9.5% | $175 | $187 | $201 | $218 | $238 |
| 10.5% | $154 | $164 | $175 | $187 | $201 |
| 11.5% | $138 | $145 | $154 | $164 | $175 |
| 12.5% | $125 | $131 | $138 | $145 | $154 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management5.9
Balance Sheet3.0
Profitability7.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment5.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality8.0
Capital Efficiency7.5
Weighted composite
6.5/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 5.9 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 3.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 8.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 7.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Exclude from active high-conviction portfolios.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$245
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Rotate out immediately; premium reflects untenable perpetual growth.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E17.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE39.7
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC38.9
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All ADSK indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
273
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 273 of 273 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on ADSK
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this ADSK report
What is the current ADSK stock rating?
Autodesk, Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full ADSK analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/ADSK/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for ADSK?
The latest report frames ADSK around $129 to $221. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the ADSK page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellADSK · Fair value $175-28.4% · Confidence 88/100