The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK)
NYSE: BK · Real-Time Price · USD
$131
-0.20 (-0.1%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: BK rated Reduce
BK is rated Reduce at $130.85 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $98.39, implying -24.81% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$98.4 / share
$69.6 – $123
Upside to FV
-24.8%
from $131
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
internal valuation cross-checks relies on inappropriate industrial-style DCF models.
Biggest risk
Severe Market Correction
Severe Market Correction: A prolonged global market downturn drastically reduces Assets Under Custody/Administration (AUC/A), directly compressing fee-based revenue streams below fixed operating costs.
Recommended action
Reduce
BK is rated Reduce at $130.85 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $98.39, implying -24.81% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $89.8B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 20.8B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 5.7B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $8.06 | |
| Shares out | 686.4M | |
| P/E (trailing) | 16.2x | |
| P/E (forward) | 13.6x | |
| Dividend | $2.12 (1.62%) | |
| Volume | 3,881,539 | |
| Beta | 1.07 | |
| Price target | $134 | +3.0% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
The Bank of New York Mellon CorporationBK
—Loading chart…
Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 20.8B
- Net income (ttm)
- 5.7B
- EPS (ttm)
- $8.06
- P/E (trailing)
- 16.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 13.6x
- Market cap
- $89.8B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $15.63B | $16.19B | $17.34B | $18.26B | $19.76B | +6.0% |
| Gross profit | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $3.76B | $2.56B | $3.30B | $4.53B | $5.55B | +10.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $2.90 | $4.00 | $5.80 | $7.40 | +26.4% |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R&D | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | $6.34B | $6.80B | $7.10B | $6.89B | $6.95B | +2.3% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $69.6
- Fair value (mid)
- $98.4
- Fair value (high)
- $123
- Current price
- $131
- Upside to mid
- -24.8%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Residual income | $98.04 | 40% |
| Forward earnings | $110 | 50% |
| Ddm | $41.11 | 10% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$134
+3.0%
In the news
Latest news · BK
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $89.8B
- P/E (trailing)
- 16.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 13.6x
- P/S
- 4.3x
- P/B
- 2.3x
- PEG
- 0.95
Profitability
- Operating margin
- 37.2%
- ROE
- 13.5%
- ROA
- 1.2%
Trading
- Beta
- 1.07
- Volume
- 3,881,539
- Dividend yield
- 1.6%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -26.2% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$123.17
-5.9% from spot
Robust global asset growth and sustained high interest rates propel both fee and net interest income, while operational leverage drives significant EPS expansion.
- Accelerated global asset gathering
- Higher-for-longer interest rates
- Successful technology integration driving margin expansion
Base55%
Price target
$98.39
-24.8% from spot
Steady execution of the core custody model delivers stable fee revenues, but structural capital charges and regulatory costs limit multiple expansion.
- Steady mid-single-digit asset growth
- Sustained net interest margins
- Modest operational leverage
Bear25%
Price target
$69.61
-46.8% from spot
A combination of declining asset values and falling interest rates severely compresses both primary revenue engines, while fixed costs heavily pressure margins.
- Significant market downturns reduce AUC/A
- Declining interest rates compress margins
- Rising regulatory and technology costs
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $98.4.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residual income | 40% | $98.0 | -24.9% | |
| Forward earnings | 50% | $110 | -15.6% | |
| Ddm | 10% | $41.1 | -68.5% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $98.4 | -24.8% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $157 | $174 | $196 | $224 | $229 |
| 7.0% | $131 | $143 | $157 | $174 | $196 |
| 8.0% | $112 | $121 | $131 | $143 | $157 |
| 9.0% | $98.3 | $105 | $112 | $121 | $131 |
| 10.0% | $87.4 | $92.5 | $98.3 | $105 | $112 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation5.0
Management6.3
Balance Sheet5.0
Profitability6.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment6.0
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency4.0
Weighted composite
6.3/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 6.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 5.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 4.0 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Underweight or initiate short given the 25% downside to intrinsic value.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$131
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Cover shorts or re-evaluate near the fair value midpoint of $98.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E13.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE13.5
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROICn/a
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All BK indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
242
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 242 of 242 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on BK
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this BK report
What is the current BK stock rating?
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation is currently shown with Reduce in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full BK analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/BK/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for BK?
The latest report frames BK around $70 to $123. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the BK page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
ReduceBK · Fair value $98.4-24.8% · Confidence 88/100