Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
BLK trades against a final fair-value range of $458.59-$888.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $459, high $889, with mid-point at $670.
Stock analysis

BLK fair value $459–$889

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Przeanalizowano: 2026-05-09Następna aktualizacja: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Financial
View archive
Cena
$1084.83
▼ -414.40 (-38.20%)
Wartość godziwa
$670
$459–$889
Rekomendacja
Sprzedaj
confidence 77/100
Potencjał wzrostu
-38.2%
upside to fair value
Margines Bezpieczeństwa
$569.87
MoS level · 15%
Kapitalizacja
$168.4B
P/E fwd 17.9
Awaryjny angielskiPL
Pokazujemy źródło angielskie podczas tłumaczenia
Ten raport nie został jeszcze przetłumaczony. Odśwież za kilka minut, gdy kolejka tłumaczeń go przetworzy.

§1 Podsumowanie wykonawcze

  • Composite fair value $670 with high case $889.
  • Implied downside of 38.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 77/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$670
Margin of safety
-61.8%
Confidence
77/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$1,084.83Price
Low $458.59
Mid $670.43
High $888.83

BLK trades against a final fair-value range of $458.59-$888.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Industry-leading AUM scale through iShares
    Industry-leading AUM scale through iShares
  • High switching costs via Aladdin
    High switching costs via Aladdin enterprise platform
  • Cycle upside
    Structural shift toward passive ETFs and scaling of private market alternatives.

§2 Scenariusz negatywny

A protracted global equity bear market reduces AUM-based fee revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., colliding with accelerated zero-fee competitor product launches and stalling Aladdin's annual recurring revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible..

Jak ta teza może się załamać

Sustained Market Stagnation

· Medium

Extended equity and fixed-income market drawdowns mechanically shrink AUM, severely degrading base management fees and operating leverage.

FV impact
Drives valuation toward the $458.59 low-end floor.
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Fee War Acceleration

· Low

Competitors slash expense ratios to zero across core index products, forcing BlackRock to cut fees to defend market share.

FV impact
Compresses margins, impairing EPS growth and forward multiple.
Trigger
24-36 months

Political Divestment Mandates

· Low

Legislative backlash forces major state pension funds and institutional clients to withdraw capital over ESG or proxy voting policies.

FV impact
Reduces terminal growth rate and terminal PE multiple.
Trigger
12-18 months
Sygnały wczesnego ostrzegania do monitorowania
WskaźnikBieżącyPróg wyzwalania
Consecutive quarters of net outflows in core iSharesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Aladdin revenue growth decelerating below 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin compressing below 30%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant institutional mandate lossesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising base fee realization rate discountsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Historia finansowa

Rachunek zysków i strat — ostatnich sześć okresów

Pozycja2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Przychody$19.37B$17.87B-7.7%$17.86B-0.1%$20.41B+14.3%$24.22B+18.7%+5.7%
Zysk brutto$9.82B$8.68B$8.58B$10.09B$11.31B+3.6%
Zysk operacyjny$7.45B$6.48B$6.34B$7.54B$7.91B+1.5%
Zysk netto$5.90B$5.18B-12.2%$5.50B+6.2%$6.37B+15.8%$5.55B-12.9%-1.5%
EPS (rozwodniony)$38.07$33.97$36.51$42.01$35.31-1.9%
EBITDA$8.79B$6.92B$7.87B$9.36B$9.36B+1.6%
R&D
SG&A$2.22B$2.06B$2.09B$2.26B$2.63B+4.3%

Wyniki jakości

OCF / Zysk netto
0.71×
>1 wskazuje wysoką jakość wyników
Bramka jakości księgowej
Pass
Bramka skorygowana o sektor
ROIC
9.2%
Zwrot z zainwestowanego kapitału
Subskrybenci indywidualni — od §411 kolejnych sekcji

Przeczytaj pełną analizę — 11 kolejnych sekcji.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Pełny raport dla każdego pokrytego tickera
24 miesiące archiwum rekomendacji
Briefingi watchlisty + alerty zmian rekomendacji
Eksport PDF + DOCX w dowolnym języku
Rozpocznij darmowy okres próbny
Anuluj w dowolnym momencie.
CASH FLOW FAQ

BLK cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for BLK (BLK) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.
FAQ

BLK — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BLK looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $1085 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $670 (range $459–$889), which implies roughly 38.2% downside to the midpoint.
Related coverage

Names readers of BLK also follow

Same archetype: financial